Showing posts with label Michel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michel. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Sekac vs Smith-Pelly Trade Analysis

Earlier today, Habs general manager Marc Bergevin acquired forward Devante Smith-Pelly from the Anaheim Ducks in exchange of forward Jiri Sekac. Smith-Pelly, 22 years old, has played 129 NHL games, keeping a scoring record of 14 goals and 26 assists for 40 points as well as 30 penalty minutes. He has also appeared in 12 playoff games, scoring 5 goals. As for Sekac, also 22 years old, he has started 50 NHL games, scoring 7 goals and adding 9 assists for 16 points, while spending 18 minutes in the penalty box. Was the move worth it? What does that imply for the Montreal Canadiens future? Would have it been better to keep Sekac? I personally think it is a great trade for both teams and here's why.

Anaheim is getting a talented forward who has never been able to find his niche here in Montreal. Sure he has only been with the Habs for 50 games: however, he has struggled to align two solid back-to-back performances. I admit he was used to a light schedule, having played in the KHL before; however, he should have been a little more steady. Therrien used him a couple times on a second line, as well as a third line. He gave him some chances. Maybe not enough will you say, and I'll have to agree with this to some extent. However, we must keep in mind Sekac is pretty frail (6', 174-lb) and Montreal has an over-abundance of small players. In Anaheim, he will be able to prove himself on one of the top two lines, replacing either Patrick Maroon, Emerson Etem or Kyle Palmieri, with Matt Beleskey on the shelf right now.



In Smith-Pelly (6', 222-lb), the Canadiens are getting a strong and physical forward who just loves to spend most of his game in front of the opposing goalie, just like Gallagher. In terms of bodychecks, DSP is currently leading Montreal's roster with a total of 147 bodychecks, ten short of Alexei Emelin (who is still injured, which is why I am not counting him). With the playoffs starting in about a month or so, this is a pretty good time to add some muscle, especially if the Habs were to play against Boston, Philadelphia or New York for example. Will the newly acquired player be able to play on the top two lines ? I doubt so. We never know, but I highly doubt he will. However, he will be a great addition to the 3rd or 4th line, especially with Bournival (5'11'', 196-lb) and Thomas (5'09'', 176-lb). It will also give Bergevin an option to trade the enigmatic Lars Eller, since De La Rose has pretty much acquired the 3rd line center spot. We must also not forget DSP already knows some of his new teammates, having played in the World Junior Championship with Bournival, Gallagher and Beaulieu.

It is also worth nothing Bergevin will save just a little north of $500,000 in salary. Is he planning to open up some money for a bigger trade? There is a pretty solid defenseman in Toronto named Roman Polak that would be a great addition to Montreal's defensive squad and word is there could be talks ongoing involving Bournival and Thomas. Even if it's just a rumor, things are definitely getting interesting.

All in all, I think this is a pretty fair trade for both teams. Only time will tell who will have the edge on that move, but we must keep in mind this is currently not a major trade. So what do you guys think? Would you have given Sekac more time to prove what he is worth? Do you think getting Smith-Pelly means Eller is on the move?

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Sunday, April 13, 2014

Canadiens Worries in the Playoffs


While most Montreal Canadiens fans are ecstatic for the upcoming playoffs and are getting ready for a nice long run by their beloved Habs, there are some pretty glaring issues that should be addressed. I don't want to rain on anybody's parade here, but I'm trying to be as realistic as possible. Possession is bad, scoring chances are bad, system is consistently in question, and certain players are not being used appropriately.

Is it good that Montreal finished with 100 points? Absolutely. Is it good that Carey Price finished with a career best save percentage? No question about it. So why all the doubt? because there are certain things in the NHL that are unsustainable and Montreal's ability to win games the way they do, might be one of those.

Montreal is a bottom five possession team in the league with a mere Corsi for percentage of 47.2%. The only teams below the Canadiens are Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, and Buffalo. None of whom are playoff teams. Not even close. This is definitely not a good sign, and if it continues down this road, well, take a look at Toronto. A team who went from a comfortable playoff spot to kicked out in a matter of weeks. Montreal's possession numbers are about 5% better, which should be alarming. Can Montreal be a dominant possession team? yes. In fact, they recently had a 60% Corsi for against the Chicago Blackhawks, a western powerhouse and a serious Cup contender. Prior to that, they held an excellent 63.6% against Anaheim, who nearly won the President's Trophy. This should tell you that Montreal's real problem is consistency. They have far too many games where they simply don't try, or give up. That needs to end, and quickly.

A lot of people have been questioning Michel Therrien's system and placing a lot of blame on him in regards to Montreal's poor play, in particular their poor possession numbers. I can't say that it is all the coach. Therrien did not take a successful possession team and run them into the ground (like what Randy Carlyle is becoming notorious for). Montreal's possession numbers have stayed relatively consistent dating back to 2011-12 with Martin/Cunneyworth at the helm. So, Therrien haters can relax a little bit. What Therrien has tried to do is create a dump and chase team, who battles in the corners, and grinds out some not-always-pretty type of goals. This team is not built for that, and it is seriously hindering the players abilities on the ice.

Montreal has some very creative players, who can hold the zone, put pressure on, and create scoring chances when they use that talent. Subban has been on a tight leash all season and if Montreal wants to succeed, Therrien needs to let him loose and reign havoc from the blue line. Benching (arguably) your best defenseman, will not help this team win. Douglas Murray is not a top-six defenseman on this Canadiens team and it is hard to justify giving him so many important minutes against players who will blow his doors off. Nathan Beaulieu and Jarred Tinordi are better options than Francis Boullion, and Douglas Murray and should be utilized to their strengths. All I'm saying is, Michel, sometimes you've got to risk it to get the biscuit.

On Twitter this morning, I saw a good friend of mine post a chart he made on scoring chance percentages for teams in the playoffs. What I saw was less than impressive.
Graph via @toddcordell
Clearly, Montreal is far behind in this category. Scoring chances are extremely important especially for a team who is currently having some serious struggles on the power play, and who has poor possession numbers. Having now gone eight games without a power play goal, Montreal is relying solely on their 5v5 scoring. Even if Montreal's power play starts to heat up again, their scoring chances at even strength still needs improving.

What is even more alarming in the previous graph is that Tampa Bay, Montreal's first round opponent, is sitting at 51%, and have defeated the Habs in three of four match ups this season. This will be one hell of a series however early on, advantage Tampa Bay.

Montreal is capable of winning games, and at times, can be a serious contender coming out of a wide open Eastern Conference. The frustrating part is that the Canadiens consistency will always be in question, no matter how well they are playing. This, above all, is their biggest problem contributing to all of the negative statistics looming over this club right now. If Montreal comes into these playoffs playing their highest level of hockey and proving they are a force to reckon with, I can certainly see them shocking a lot of opposing teams.

Thank you for the read, and feel free to leave a comment!
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