Sochi 2014 Preview: Team Finland

First and foremost, I am proudly Canadian and I fully expect the gold medal to be coming home to Canada.   The reason I chose to write up about Team Finland is simple:  Former Habs captain Saku Koivu has long been my favorite NHL player. 

Finland has been a force in the past two Olympics, ending up with a silver medal in 2006 and a bronze in 2010. The strength of the Finnish program is goaltending. While Canada is trying to figure out who will be more consistent between Carey Price and Corey Crawford, Finland is trying to figure out which all-star to leave OFF the roster. Good goaltending can help a bad team win games.  This is good because Finland has an aging roster that is short on top-level talent, especially on defense.

Goaltending

Pekka Rinne (starter)

Tuukka Rask

Anti Niemi (3^rd)

With incumbent starter Mikka Kiprusoff retiring, the reins have been passed to All-Star and two-time (arguably should have been three-time) Vezina trophy candidate Pekka Rinne. Tuukka Rask is coming off a defining playoff run and Antti Niemi has won a Stanley Cup in Chicago and was a Vezina nominee for his play this year in San Jose.  Kari Lehtonen is a former 2^nd overall draft pick and star for the Dallas Stars, but does not boast the talent and resume to make this squad.  Barring injury to one of the top three, Lehtonen is watching from home, along with Minnesota Wild standout Niklas Backstrom.

Grade: A+

Defense

Kimmo Timonen  --  Sami Salo

Joni Pitkanen  --   Toni Lydman

Sami Lepisto  --  Sami Vatanen

Ossi  Väänänen (scratch)

This group is old.  Timonen and Salo are both 38 years old, but both still posess puck-moving skills to lead the power-play (Timonen) and a cannon point shot accessorize it (Salo).  Lydman is an elite shutdown defender, but is also 35 years old.  Sami Lepisto makes the team based on his past experience, but is currently playing in the KHL.  Sami Vatanen (Anaheim Ducks prospect) is an up-and-coming NHL player who should break camp with the Ducks this upcoming season and will be a part of Finlands future. Olli Maata (Pittsburgh Penguins prospect) has a bright future, but at 19 will not be a part of this team.  Ossi Väänänen is a well-regarded veteran and will be on the squad to provide depth.

Grade: C

Forwards 

Valterri Filppula  --  Mikko Koivu  --  Mikael Granlund

Tuomo Ruutu  --  Saku Koivu  --  Teemu Selanne

Lori Korpikoski  --  Olli Jokinen  --  Ville Leino

Antti Miettinen  --  Sean Bergenheim  --  Jussi Jokinen

Teemu Hartikainen, Jori Lehtera (scratches)

Up-front, this squad is led by the brothers Koivu (Mikko is my choice for captain, Saku an assistant), the ageless Teemu Selanne and Detroit Red Wings stalwart Valterri Filppula.  After that, the talent level thins out considerably.   This is a veteran group through and through, as Saku is 38 years old, Selanne is 42 and Olli Jokinen is 34. Most of the core players are at or around 30 years of age.  Granlund and Hartikainen (20 and 22 respectively) will provide the youth.

The top line of Filppula/Koivu/Granlund boasts two potential line-mates from Minnesota playing together. If they develop a chemistry together during the regular season, that should theoretically carry over to the Olympics.  Saku Koivu and Teemu Selanne have played together in Olympics past and currently play together with the Anaheim Ducks. Tuomo Ruutu provides a physical presence on that line.  The third line consists of veteran sniper Olli Jokinen, with two-way Phoenix Coyote Lori Korpikoski and the gritty Ville Leino.  The checking line should be able to shut down teams on the penalty kill, with proven grinders Miettinen and Jussi Jokinen paired up with Florida Panther Sean Bergenheim.  This line can also put the puck in the net.  Teemu Hartikainen is a top-prospect with the Edmonton Oilers and pairs up with top KHL player Jori Lehtera (52 games, 17 goals, 48 pts) to provide depth.  While Aleksander Barkov was drafted 2nd overall in the 2013 NHL draft by Florida and is an extremely talented player, I do not see him making the team this year barring a Sidney Crosby-esque start to his NHL career. Sochi is about taking one last veteran run at winning Olympic gold.

Grade: C

Prediction

Finland has the goaltending depth to steal another medal.  While they lack the firepower to compete with power-houses Canada, Russia and the United States, this has always been the case for them.  Finland has enough two-way forwards to make up for the lack of depth on defence.  Age will be a factor, as will health.  Sami Salo, Joni Pitkanen, Saku and Mikko Koivu and Tuomo Ruutu have been injury prone in the past and losing any of these players to injury around Olympic time will be a hard blow to overcome.

Group B consists of Finland, Canada, Austria and Norway.  Canada and Finland advance.

Finland rides hot goaltending to make another appearance in the medal round but lacks the offensive firepower to upset the United States.  Canada and Russia meet for the gold.

The Finnish Finish:  4^th 

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Putting Price vs. Budaj Debate To Rest

For weeks, on this very site, some "Anonymous" reader has left comments in an attempt to discredit Carey Price and anoint Peter Budaj as the Canadiens' playoff savior.

Instead of deleting or blocking this reader, who we really do appreciate, we at HabsAddict.com decided to fight back, in an attempt to finally put this unfair notion to rest.

When looking at Carey Price's numbers in the playoffs between 2008 and today, his won/lost record leaves much to be desired (9-17), which gives him a 0.346 winning percentage. That being said, the Montreal Canadiens have played 46 games in the playoffs since Price's arrival in Montreal. The Habs have an 18-28 record and a 0.391 winning percentage.

Detractors may look at those statistics and say, "So what? Halak took us further in the playoffs!"

On the surface they may be right, but in 19 playoff games that Price didn't play in 2009-2010, when Jaroslav Halak backstopped the Canadiens to the Eastern Conference finals, the Habs went 9-9-1, giving them a .526 winning percentage.

When you look more in-depth, "Les Glorieux"  scored 46 goals in the 2009-2010 playoff run, while allowing 51 against, giving them a -5 goal differential. Halak's GAA was 2.55 with a goal differential of -1 in 1013 minutes of action.

Bear in mind, Price appeared in 4 games, allowing 2 goals on 23 shots in relief of Halak on April 19th versus the Washington Capitals, 4 on 36 shots in his only start of the playoffs on April 21st, 0 goals on 3 shots against the Pittsburgh Penguins and 2 on 11 shots on May 16th versus the Philadelphia Flyers, again in relief of Halak.

How many did the Habs score while Price was in goal that playoff season? A measly 4 goals in 135 minutes (a -4 goal differential).

Carey Price has allowed a total of 82 goals in 1696 playoff minutes, giving him a .905 save percentage and a career 2.90 Goals Against Average. The Canadiens managed to score a meager 68, giving Price a career goal differential of -14.

Some will look at these numbers and still believe Carey Price isn't the answer to a deep playoff run. Let us add some more stats, just to justify where we are going.

In 2008, Price had a record of 5-6, having beaten the Boston Bruins in a tough, seven game first round series, while allowing 30 goals in 648 minutes. The Canadiens scored 33 goals that playoff year, giving Price a +3 goal differential, a 2.78 GAA and .902 save percentage.

If you do the math, from 2009 to today, Price has allowed 52 goals in 1036 minutes of action, while getting 38 goals in support from his teammates. So, in 23 more minutes than Halak's magical run, Price has received 13 goals less in support, while allowing only 6 more goals that Jaro Halak.

Meanwhile, Peter Budaj has appeared in only 5 playoff games in his career, allowing 4 goals on 71 shots, giving him a .887 save percentage and a 4.00 GAA.

All this to say that Carey Price certainly has average numbers in his playoff journey so far.While some try to discredit him as an athlete and an individual, others like Marc-Andre Fleury and Antti Niemi, both Stanley Cup Champions, have similar career numbers. The difference between the three goalies is that Fleury and Niemi played with some pretty incredible teams in front of them.

Carey Price has played for six season during a decade of Habs' futility. As the future becomes clearer while the Canadiens continue to rebuild their franchise to its former glory, so will the value of a talent like Price. Just think, if Price can have numbers like Fleury and Niemi with sub-par teams supporting him, imagine what his numbers may look like in a few seasons?

The statisics used in this articles were found with the following resources:
NHL.com
hockey-reference.com

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All-Star Stanley Cup Goaltending No Longer Necessary/New Sunday Shinny Podcast

by Kamal Panesar

Good morning hockey addicts!

I've got another brief break in baby planning/preparation so I thought I'd poke my head in to offer a few thoughts on the playoffs.

The first thing that I notice, when looking at the two conference finals that are going on, is an incredible lack of proven goaltending.

Now before you jump down my throat on that one, allow me to explain.


I'm Not Buying It

Excluding the recent insertion of Mike Smith into the Tampa Bay cage—he is also unproven—the four netminders left are Tim Thomas, Roberto Luongo, Dwayne Roloson and Antti Niemi.

I'm sure the first thing people will say to me is that Luongo has an Olympic Gold Medal, Antti Niemi has a Stanley Cup ring and Tim Thomas won the Vezina a few seasons ago.

As for Roloson, he has had a respectable, if undecorated, career.

So let's start with the Luongo argument.

Yes, he has an Olympic Gold and was the starter for the gold medal game, but Luongo got the job by default when Martin Brodeur faltered early. Moreover, Luongo didn't play tremendous hockey for Team Canada and the team won despite his average performance.

So far in the playoffs, Luongo has a middling .917 save percentage and a pedestrian 2.37 GAA. That the Canucks are one win away from the Stanley Cup final—they are also my pick to win the Cup—is due more to the tremendous skill and depth in front of him.

Antti Niemi is kind of in the same boat as Luongo, having won the cup with Chicago last year in the worst demonstration of Stanley Cup Final goaltending in NHL history. Philly too had horrible goaltending and both teams won the games they did despite their netminders.

So I don't give Niemi much clout in that argument. Plus, as well as he played during the season for San Jose, he is sitting on a .895 save percentage and a 3.33 GAA through 17 playoff games.

Ouch!

Tim Thomas, with a .931 save percentage and a 2.27 GAA, is a bit of a different story, having won the Vezina trophy in 2009 and being in line to win it again this season. That being said, I just don't buy it.

I watch this guy play and he lets in far too many bad goals for my comfort.

In addition, he came out of nowhere to win the 2009 Vezina and is suddenly supposed to be a goaltending phenom in his thirties? This with no previous record of greatness and with no prior pedigree?

That dog won't hunt.

That being said, every time I think he and the Bruins will get bounced from the playoffs Thomas comes up with a game saving performance. As such, in my books, he is the closest thing to being an established goaltender out of the remaining four.

Dwayne Roloson, who was pulled in his last start and sat as the backup to Mike Smith last night against Boston, is an aged journeyman goaltender. At 41 years of age, he played an excellent season to get the Bolts into the playoffs and all the way to the conference finals.

Yet when the chips were down, Roloson failed and his team is on the brink of elimination as such. Hardly Conn Smythe candidate performances.


The game has changed

So if none of the four remaining teams have exceptional goaltending, then why are they in the conference finals over other teams?

It is because the game has changed.

Philadelphia and Chicago demonstrated in last year's playoffs, that you no longer need to have lights-out goaltending to contend for or win the Stanley Cup. No longer are the virtuoso perfromances of Patrick Roy and Martin Brodeur needed to win a championship. Nowadays, depth, an ability to remain relatively healthy and a little luck are usually all that is needed.

If you look at some of the players that are helping their teams win and scoring goals at opportune moments, it is not usually the top-line players. Players like Maxim Lapierre, Chris Higgins, Raffi Torres, Sean Bergenheim, Steve Downie, Dominic Moore, Devin Stoguchi, Logan Couture, Brad Marchard, Patrice Bergeron, Mark Recchi, Logan and other, are the ones that help a team contend for the Cup.

Oh sure, you still need top line scoring but without four lines of depth, it is impossible to win. In the past, you were perhaps able to win or make it to the final on the back of spectacular goaltending. While all-star goaltending can still take you all the way, you generally need much more than just that to win in today's NHL.


New Sunday Shinny Podcast

In this episode of the Sunday Shinny Gary Whittaker, Kamal Panesar and Sean Coleman welcome Kyle Roussel, of Cowhide and Rubber, to the show.

Topics include:
-Break down Canucks vs Sharks
-Break down Bruins vs Lightning
-Talk about the signing of Alexei Emelin and what that means for Andrei Markov
-Take a few minutes to talk about Gary Carter

Click play below to listen in (listing time 46:41):


---
Kamal is a freelance Habs writer, Senior Writer/Editor-in-Chief of HabsAddict.com, Montreal Canadiens Blogger on Hockeybuzz.com and Habs writer on TheFranchise.ca. Kamal is also a weekly contributor to the Sunday Shinny on The Team 990 (AM 990) every Sunday from 8 - 9 AM. Listen live at http://www.team990.com/

Follow Kamal on Facebook and Twitter

(Photo by Harry How/Getty Images North America)

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Leblanc at junior camp, Habs have 11th best fans, Hindle on WJC rosters, what is value of Habs centers?

HabsAddict.com - Étude: Quelle est la valeur des deux premiers centres du CH?
http://www.habsaddict.com/2010/08/etude-quelle-est-la-valeur-des-deux_05.html

Habs Inside/Out - TGIF
http://www.habsinsideout.com/main/36626

RDS - Forbes : partisans du CH au 11e rang
http://www.rds.ca/canadien/chroniques/303861.html

TSN - Agent: Nothing yet on Price talks, Habs not targeting Niemi
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=329610

Hockeybuzz.com - Team Canada WJC Development Camp Roster
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Steven-Hindle/Team-Canada-WJC-Development-Camp-RosterTeam-Red--Team-White/139/29623

Spector's Hockey - NHL rumours - Friday August 6, 2010
http://www.spectorshockey.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1679:nhl-rumors-friday-august-6-2010&catid=5:trade-rumors&Itemid=4

Like this story? Don't be selfish, Share it! Share|

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Stop The Insanity! Carey Price Will Sign With The Canadiens

by Kamal Panesar

OK, folks, I have been getting a lot of emails, tweets and other messages, about the possibility of the Habs trading Carey Price and signing another goalie to take his place.

I am here to tell you that while I do not have powers of divination and that anything is technically possible, these rumours sound like total folly to me.

I think that there are a lot of rumours out there simply because Price has not yet signed and there really isn't much to talk about regarding the Habs.

The big names that we are hearing in the rumour mill are Antti Niemi and Jonas Hiller, but either sounds completely ridiculous to me.

I mean, did Pierre Gauthier put his neck on the line by trading playoff hero, Jaroslav Halak, just so he could turn around and also trade or let Price go?

Does that sound logical to anyone out there?

Even if Gauthier did intend to trade Price, wouldn't it have been better to do so earlier in the offseason when teams had more cap room to play with? Right now, teams are making their final tweaks before training camp, not looking to make blockbuster deals as much.

Moreover, most of the goaltending positions have now been filled and there are still a bunch of veterans—Niemi, Theodore, etc—who are waiting to see if they will have a job to start the season.

No, trading Price and bringing in another goalie as their first-stringer just doesn't make sense.

There is a principle called Occam's razor which, in essence, states that the simplest explanation is usually the correct one.

So, what makes more sense?

That Pierre Gauthier when faced with the best, young goaltending tandem in the league, got rid of fan favorite, Halak, and kept Price only to then push Price aside for another goaltender?

Or, that Price and the Canadiens are still working on a deal, are separated by term, but will get something done before training camp because both parties want this partnership?

So, if that's the case then why is Price not yet signed? Because he doesn't have to be.

Gauthier screwed up the timing of his moves and traded Halak while Price was unsigned. That move gave Price move leverage than he had while Halak was still part of the team. But make no mistake; Price still has very little leverage.

As Arpon Basu points out, Price is a restricted free-agent with no arbitration rights—something that Gauthier was sure to point out during his press conference.

As such, the only choice Price has is to try to get as much as he can out of the Canadiens but ultimately to sign a deal, or to holdout and not report to training camp.

Being a holdout, in my opinion, is a non-starter.

Price already knows that many people preferred Halak to him and are unhappy that he is the one who is still in town. Knowing that he will be playing at least the next year in Montreal, Price simply cannot risk the negative backlash that being a holdout would bring upon him.

Can you imagine the venom that people would spew on this kid?

I think the only way that Price will holdout is if he no longer wants to play in Montreal. Holding-out would place one of his feet out of town and I don't believe that he is yet ready to go down that road.

If you listen to Tony Marinaro on the Team 990 today, he said that Price wants a five-year deal while the Canadiens want to sign him to a two-year deal.

Price's agent is wisely trying to squeeze the most that he can out of the Habs because he has the luxury of time, but at the end of the day he knows that Price really has no leverage.

This deal will get done, folks, but it might go down to the wire.

So read the rumours, talk about them, and even feel free to fantasize about the possibilities. But please, for the sake of sanity, think about what you are reading in the macro sense and not just the micro.

Often, when you do, you'll find that the simplest explanation is usually the right one.

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What Does Niemi's $2.75 Million Abritration Award Mean for Carey Price?

by Kamal Panesar

The Montreal Canadiens have been busy over the last few weeks signing prospects, depth players, administrators, and scouts. While these moves will serve to strengthen the administrative levels and fringes of the team, there remains one gaping hole in its core: Carey Price.

Handed the reigns of the No.1 goaltender the same instant playoff hero Jaroslav Halak was traded, Price has yet to come to terms with the Canadiens for the upcoming season.

So does that mean that we should all be panicking? Hardly.

If you think back a few years, you'll remember that fresh off of winning his Hart and Vezina trophies, Jose Theodore did not sign a new deal with the Canadiens until their annual golf tournament—just before training camp.

So, while it is still very likely that both sides will get something done, there is always the possibility of the Price contract getting stretched out till September.

But this begs the question, why?

In Theodore's case, it made a little more sense. This guy was coming off of the career-year to end career-years, and held the long end of the stick in negotiations.

Theodore was good-looking, bilingual, hometown hero and the future marketing face of the franchise. There was no way the Canadiens could escape with anything less than a one-sided deal.

With Price, however, the Canadiens are in a totally different boat, or at least they should be.

At 22 years of age, Price has the pedigree to become an elite goaltender in the NHL but he has not yet hit that level of play.

Now keep in mind that goaltenders don't tend to hit their stride until their mid-twenties, so Price still has ample time to get there.

That being said, he is coming off of a season where he had 13 wins, 20 losses, and 5 overtime losses over 41 games played. While his win/loss record was nothing to write home about, Price still managed to maintain a respectable 2.77 GAA and a .912 save percentage.

I won't go into the details of how Halak simply got more offensive support from his team than Price did and how this played a large part in Price's win/loss record—because it has been discussed to death—but suffice it to say that, from a negotiation perspective, Price doesn't have much to stand on.

In addition, Price is an RFA who is not arbitration eligible so this negotiation should have been a slam dunk.

So why is it dragging?

There is one well discussed—but unsubstantiated—theory on the matter that I also tend to espouse, and it is a dollars and term idea i.e. Price likely wants more of each and the Habs want less dollars over fewer years.

That tends to make sense since Price probably now feels that, as the anointed No.1, he should be making more money, say, in the $3 million-plus range. For the Habs, they see potential in Price, but are probably understandably wary of signing him long-term to large dollars while he is still unproven.

So, while we wait and speculate as to what will happen with Price, a good comparable just came onto the market in the form of Antti Niemi's arbitration award.

For those who haven't heard, Chicago's Niemi was awarded $2.75 million from an arbiter—which the Hawks have subsequently walked away from to sign Marty Turco to a one-year deal instead: http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=329318

While Price's situation is unique in the current RFA market, I think that the Niemi award provides a nice benchmark in the Price negotiations.

While Niemi's win/loss record was much better than Price's last year—39 GP, 26W, 7L, 4OTL—his individual stats were comparable with a 2.55 GAA and a .912 GAA.

The most important factor, however, has to be the Stanley Cup ring that Niemi now wears. So, if we look back at Niemi's career and see that it is somewhat spotty, there fact remains that he is a Stanley Cup winning goaltender and that had to factor into negotiations.

So, if we say that Niemi and Price's stats were similar—notwithstanding their win/loss record—and that the Stanley Cup win is worth a 10-20% premium on salary, then extrapolating from Niemi's $2.75 million award, Price should be making $2.2 to $2.475 million per season.

That sounds about right to me.

So, will this new data help move the Price negotiations forward or will the deadlock continue?

If I'm Price, I sign a short-term deal and go out there and work my butt off to prove that I deserve the big bucks. But that's just me.

At the end of the day, I think that both sides will come to an agreement because they have no choice. Or rather, the Canadiens have no choice.

Gauthier's poorly timed strategy with his goaltenders has put him in a bind and he might have no choice but to bend to Price's demands, if he decides to play hardball.

So what do you think? Is Niemi's award a good yardstick in the Price negotiations? Will Price play hardball will the Habs? What do you think is fair value for Price?

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