Playoff Preview: Montreal Canadiens – Ottawa Senators

Montreal Canadiens (2) vs. Ottawa Senators (7)

Some hockey fans in Canada will certainly be disappointed that the Montreal Canadiens won’t meet the Toronto Maple Leaf in the first round of the playoffs, but that’s not going to happen, in the first round at least, as the Habs will face the Ottawa Senators. The close division rivals will face each other for the first time ever in the playoffs since the arrival of Ottawa in the NHL in the early 1990s. This series will probably turn into an epic goaltending battle and low-scoring affairs between two of the league’s strongest netminders in Craig Anderson and Carey Price.

Both teams had successful regular seasons for different reasons. The Canadiens, who finished dead last in the Eastern Conference in 2011-12 and went through a complete overhaul of their off-ice personnel in the off-season, managed to win the Northeast division when the Boston Bruins stumbled against those same Senators last night. As for the Senators, they were tormented by serious injuries to key players, but they never lost faith or intensity under Jack Adams trophy candidate Paul MacLean. Erik Karlsson, Jason Spezza, Craig Anderson, Milan Michalek and Jared Cowan all missed significant time due to injury. The Canadiens and Senators split four games this season, with both teams winning one game in regulation and one game in a shootout, which gave each team five points (2-1-1 record) in the season series, both teams winning their games on home ice. Overall, the Canadiens finished with a 29-14-5 record earning 63 points in 48 games, while the Senators posted a respectable 25-7-6 record for 56 points during the lockout-shortened campaign. The Canadiens finished with the third best offense in the NHL, scoring 149 goals, or 3.04 GF/G, in comparison to the 116 goals, or 2.33 GF/G, the Senators managed to score. On defense, the Senators were dominant, allowing the second fewest goals in the league with 100 goals, or a 2.08 GA/G, compared to the 124 goals, or 2.58 GA/G, allowed by the Canadiens. On paper, the Canadiens have the best team, but we all know that surprises can happen and this series is no exception, yet, let’s have a look at the strengths and weaknesses of each team.

Goaltending: Craig Anderson had a very strong season for the Senators and had he not missed extensive playing time, he would certainly be a top candidate for the Vezina Trophy. The veteran netminder finished with a 12-9-2 record, posting a very solid 1.69 GAA to go along with an excellent .941 save percentage. In Anderson’s absence, back-up Robin Lehner and now-departed giant Ben Bishop posted great numbers and kept the goal-starved Senators in playoff contention. For Montreal, Carey Price faltered down the stretch after a great start, seeing his overall statistics balloon at a 2.59 GAA and a less-than-stellar .905 save percentage. Price, who posted a solid 21-13-4 record despite his recent struggles, will need to avoid giving up bad goals early in the first period, something that has plagued him in the Canadiens’ past ten games. Second violin, Peter Budaj, had a great season for the Canadiens, posting a solid 8-1-1 record with a great 2.29 GAA and a .908 save percentage in 13 games played. His solid play earned his a two-year contractextension with the organization and Michel Therrien is not afraid to use him in big games, so don’t be surprise to see him start a game if Price struggles early. Edge: Ottawa

Defensive corps The Canadiens boast two of the best offensive-minded defensemen in the NHL with PK Subban (11 goals and 27 assists for 38 points in 42 games) and Andrei Markov (10 goals and 20 assists for 30 points in 48 games), while the Senators can count on the return of a healthy Erik Karlsson, the 2012 Norris Trophy winner, who is back from a serious Achilles injury that forced him to miss most of the shortened season. Both defensive brigades boast a solid group of defensemen that provide leadership and experience on the blue line, Josh Gorges and Francis Bouillon for Montreal, and Sergei Gonchar and Chris Phillips for Ottawa. With similar offensive punch of the power play and great defensive prowess on the man advantage, both teams match evenly in this department. Edge: None 

Forward lines The injury to Jason Spezza has left head coach Paul MacLean scramble for offense, which has been the most obvious shortcoming for the Senators this season: the team only had four players with 20 points or more (Alredsson, Turris, Conacher and Zibanejad) this season. Injuries to Milan Michalek and Guillaume Latendresse have hampered Ottawa’s offensive production from its forwards all season long, but now that both have returned, and with the addition of rookie Cory Conacher acquired at the deadline, the Senators can count on a more balanced group of forwards.

On the other hand, the strength of the Canadiens and head coach Michel Therrien has been their ability to consistently roll three productive lines all year long. Eight forwards with 25 points or more for the Bleu Blanc Rouge, including über-talented rookies Alex Galchenyuk and Brandon Gallagher. Rene Bourque would certainly have made it nine if he had not missed 21 games because of a concussion. Overall, the Canadiens will benefit from their balanced line-up, especially since they don’t have a clear-cut first line, which makes it harder for the opposing coach to match up his defensive specialist against the Habs’ top weapons.
Edge: Montreal

Special units The power play of the Canadiens has been deadly at times because of the dynamic duo of Andrei Markov and PK Subban on the point, who have combined for 49 points on the man advantage, helping the Habs’ PP to produce at a 22.4% rate, good for 9th in the NHL. As for the Senators, they have struggled all year on the power play, especially with Karlsson out of the line-up, producing at a paltry 15.8% clip, good for 24th in the league. As for the penalty kill, Ottawa was the best team in the NHL this season, killing penalties at an excellent 88% clip. On the other hand, the Canadiens struggled with a man down, finishing 23rd with a dismal 79.8% rate, costing them more than one game down the stretch. A good measure to assess the quality of a team’s special units is to add both percentages and come to a rate better than 100%. For Ottawa, the rate comes down to 103.8% with is very good. As for Montreal, it is slightly inferior at 102.2%.
Edge: None

After analysing both teams, we can conclude this will be a pretty even matched up series, and it will probably come down to home-ice advantage as both teams won at home against the other team during the regular season.Fearless prediction: Montreal wins in 7 gamesProbable lines: 

Michael Ryder-Tomas Plekanec-Brian Gionta 

Max Pacioretty-David Desharnais-Rene Bourque 

Alex Galchenyuk-Lars Eller-Brendan Gallagher 

Travis Moen-Jeff Halpern-Brandon Prust 

Healthy scratches: Colby Armstrong, Ryan White, Gabriel Dumont 

Defensive pairings: 

Andrei Markov-P.K. Subban 

Josh Gorges-Raphael Diaz 

Francis Bouillon-Jarred Tinordi 

Healthy scratches: Tomas Kaberle, Davis Drewiske, Yannick Weber 

Injured player: Alexei Emelin (knee, out for the season) 

Goaltending: Carey Price Peter BudajProbable lines: Milan Michalek-Kyle Turris-Daniel Alfredsson 

Guillaume Latendresse-Mika Zibanejad-Jakob Silfverberg 

Colin Greening-Zack Smith-Chris Neil 

Cory Conacher-Jean-Gabriel Pageau-Erik Condra 

Healthy scratches: Matt Kassian, Peter Regin, Jim O’Brien 

Injured player: Jason Spezza (back, out indefinitely) 

Defensive pairings: Marc Methot-Erik Karlsson 

Sergei Gonchar-Patrick Wiercioch 

Jared Cowen-Chris Phillips 

Healthy scratches: Andre Benoit, Eric Gryba, Mike Lundin 

Goaltending: Craig Anderson Robin Lehner 

Calendar of the series: 

1 OTT @ MTL May 2, 7pm et/4pm pt 

2 OTT @ MTL May 3, 7pm et/4pm pt 

3 MTL @ OTT May 5, 7pm et/4pm pt 

4 MTL @ OTT May 7, 7pm et/4pm pt 

*5 OTT @ MTL May 9, 7pm et/4pm pt 

*6 MTL @ OTT May 11, 7pm et/4pm pt 

*7 OTT @ MTL May 12, 7pm et/4pm pt

Read More

5 In A Row For The Habs, A Lump Of "Cole", More...

Happy HumpDay Addicts!!!!

The Canadiens made it five in a row yesterday, with a 3-1 victory against the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden. Alex Galchenyuk scored the game-winner at 1:48 of the third period on a three-on-one with Brandan Prust and Lars Eller. Suffice it to say that the trio has looked pretty good together since Montreal's head coach, Michel Therrien put them together.

That said, the Habs welcomed Ryan White back in the lineup, and Coach Therrien called upon the much-maligned tough guy late in the third period, as the Canadiens were killing off a late penalty to Tomas Plekanec. With all the faceoff problems the Habs have had so far this season, it was nice to see White get a confidence boost from Therrien after his early season braincramps.

White won that particular draw in the defensive zone cleanly, and it eventually led to an empty net shorthanded goal by Swiss d-man Raphael Diaz on a clearing attempt from his own zone that found the back of the Rangers' net 200 feet away.

----------

The Rangers only goal came in the second period while there was a delayed penalty being called on P.K. Subban for holding. The Rangers maintained possession of the puck, as Subban momentarily complained to the official, which led to Anton Stralman scoring on a mice feed from Derrick Stepan.

The biggest issue with that play was the half-hearted backcheck by Canadiens' veteran winger Erik Cole. Carey Price made a brilliant initial save on Stralman, but because Cole had his feet in cement, the Rangers' forward had ample time to score on his own rebound. That lack of secondary effort by Cole landed him on the bench for the better part of the third period, with only 3:59 TOI.

Since the beginning of the season, Erik Cole has been scrutinized by everyone surrounding the Canadiens. Some question his heart, while others maintain he has a health issue. Some even reference his propensity for starting each season slower than most.

There have been instances were Cole has indeed looked like the player he was last season, when he led the Canadiens in goals with 35, and was a major reason why his linemates, David Desharnais and Max Pacioretty were so effective.

With 33% of the season in the books, and the Canadiens leading the Eastern Conference with 23 points, Cole remains an enigma among an otherwise outstanding group of players. The combination of character and talent has Habs' fans believing that this team can do major damage in the playoffs moving forward. As ineffective as last year's best line has been so far, Pacioretty and Desharnais are beginning to find their groove, while Cole remains behind.

----------

Last night's edition of Montreal Hockey Talk was a hoot. With the likes of Simon Tsalikis, Mitch Gallo, Jay Ferrar and Nick Murdocco joining host Corey Collard, the laughs just kept on coming.

Read More

2012-13 NHL regular season predictions: Eastern Conference

August is always a time of slow NHL news, especially since the free agency “frenzy” has cooled down and NHL training camps are still about a month away.

However, with a lockout looming over the league and the players—following Gary Bettman’s announcement yesterday that there will be no hockey in October if the NHLPA and the NHL don’t find a way to come to an agreement and renew the current CBA (which is set to expire on September 15, 2012)—the following rankings will most likely change or won't happen at all if the entire season is wiped out!

2012-13 NHL regular season predictions: Eastern Conference

15.NEW YORK ISLANDERS = 75 points

The lowly Islanders didn’t do much in terms of improvement in the offseason. Up front, they lost an important offensive weapon when P-A Parenteau took his talent to Colorado, and the team didn’t replace his production via free agency or trade.

On the blue line, the team is really thin after Mark Streit and Travis Hamonic, and the uncertainty surrounding Lubomir Visnovsky, who wants his trade to Long Island voided, certainly doesn’t help.

In goal, the team is counting on the veteran Evgeni Nabokov and the oft-injured Rick Dipietro to hold the fort. Worth noting is that John Tavares will continue to improve and be an offensive force for years to come despite all of the above.

14.BUFFALO SABRES = 78 points

The Sabres barely missed the playoffs last season, but GM Darcy Regier didn’t do anything to improve a team that struggled to score goals. Heck, Regier even traded inconsistent, yet productive, pivot Derek Roy in exchange for agitator Steve Ott and depth defenseman Adam Pardy.

Roy’s departure, combined with a lack of a true No.1 centre in Buffalo will hamper the Sabres’ chance at making the playoffs. Unless Cody Hodgson explodes offensively or draft picks Zemgus Girgensons and Mikhail Grigorenko make the team and provide a much-need spark, the season will be long in Buffalo.

13. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS = 81 points

The Leafs added to an already potent offensive core of Phil Kessel, Joffrey Lupul and Mikhail Grabovski, with the acquisition of James Van Riemsdyk on their top-six. Jay McClement was also brought in to help their penalty kill. However, GM Brian Burke has yet to address the team’s goaltending woes. Unless he acquires someone like Roberto Luongo before the season starts, the team will rely on James Reimer and Ben Scrivens to win some games, which is not a good idea.

12.WINNIPEG JETS= 82 points

The Jets did not make any major improvement, other than veteran Olli Jokinen, to a line-up that failed to make the playoffs last year. While the Jets had great success at home last season, they failed to compete in most of their road games in 2011-12.

Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ladd and Evander Kane will carry the load offensively, while Dustin Byfuglien and Tobias Enstrom will provide offensive punch from the blue line. Al Montoya, who’s an improvement over Chris Mason, will back-up Ondrej Pavelec for the upcoming season.

11.MONTREAL CANADIENS = 84 points

While the Canadiens finished last in 2011-12, they have a better team than their record on paper. With the stellar play of netminder Carey Price, the Canadiens always managed to play tight games and have a chance to win. However, a lack of offensive punch cost them way too many games last year.

A healthy Andrei Markov and an improving P.K. Subban will certainly help the team improve their dismal power play, but after their first line of David Desharnais, Erik Cole and Max Pacioretty, only Tomas Plekanec represents an offensive threat.

Veteran Brian Gionta should add some scoring punch after an injury-filled season and Rene Bourque might bounce back after a lacklustre campaign, but still that won’t be enough for the Habs.

10.NEW JERSEY DEVILS = 87 points

After the departure of all-star Zach Parise for his hometown, the Devils will be hard-pressed to find goals this season when Ilya Kovalchuk, Patrick Elias and Adam Henrique are off the ice.

On defense, the team can count on steady defensemen like Henrik Tallinder, Anton Volchenkov and Bryce Salvador, but they are lacking a true offensive defenseman as Marek Zidlicky is a defensive liability.

In goal, Martin Brodeur and Johan Hedberg are one year older and their performance will falter as a result.

9.FLORIDA PANTHERS = 89 points

Despite making the playoffs last season, the Panthers had a losing record, if we account for the OTL, and they had a goal differential of minus-24.

After Stephen Weiss, Tomas Fleischmann and Kris Versteeg, the Panthers are thin up front. Talented youngster Jonathan Huderdeau will certainly make the team out of training and contend for the Rookie of the Year award. On defense, the team added steady veteran Filip Kuba to an already potent group of Dmitry Kulikov and Ed Jovanovksi.

In goal, the less than flashy duo of Jose Theodore and Scott Clemmensen gets the job done, but it will not be enough to make the playoffs this year.

8.OTTAWA SENATORS = 93 points

The Senators barely made the playoffs last season, and it will happen again this year. With the return of Daniel Alfredsson for one more season, and the emergence of Erik Karlsson, Jason Spezza will not be the only offensive threat in the national capital.

Still, GM Bryan Murray traded dynamic forward Nick Foligno in exchange of Ottawa-native Marc Methot, and replaced Foligno’s production by signing Guillaume Latendresse who missed most of last season due to injuries. Craig Anderson will be backed-up by lanky goalie Ben Bishop, which should ease his workload and allow him to perform well all-season long.

7.PHILADELPHIA FLYERS = 95 points

Look for the Flyers to have problems defensively with the departure of Matt Carle and the season-ending injury suffered by Andrej Meszaros. Couple that with Chris Pronger's unlikely return this season after suffering from concussion symptoms, and things are ugly for Philly on the back-end.

Offensively, the Flyers will still score plenty of goals despite Jaromir Jagr’s departure, with talented forwards like Brayden Schenn, Scott Hartnell and Daniel Briere. In goal, look for the most colourful goaltender (Ilya Bryzgalov) to have his ups and downs this season as he gets more comfortable to his new defensemen, most notably Luke Schenn, Bruno Gervais and Nicklas Grossman.

6.TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING = 96 points

GM Steve Yzerman addressed his team’s shortcomings during the off-season by acquired young talented netminder Anders Lindback to replace over-the-hill veteran Dwayne Roloson.

Stevie Y also added much-needed depth on the blue line with the signing of Matt Carle and Sami Salo, who will complement a solid top-four with Eric Brewer and Victor Hedman. At forward, the Bolt can count on sniper Steven Stamkos, as well as captain Vincent Lecavalier and playmakers Martin St. Louis and Teddy Purcell to carry the offensive load.

5.CAROLINA HURRICANES = 98 points

One of the most improved teams in the conference, the Hurricanes added two very talented players in Alex Semin (UFA) and Jordan Staal (PIT) to their offensive corps. They will allow Eric Staal and Jeff Skinner to finally play great offensive players and not the likes of Chad Larose and Jiri Tlusty.

The steady play of underrated goaltender Cam Ward will go a long way to the Canes’ success in 2012-13. Youngsters Jamie McBain and Justin Faulk are slowly emerging as the team’s top two offensive guys on the blue line. Their continuing development will help improve the team's defense-offense transition for their talented forwards.

4.PITTSBURGH PENGUINS = 104 points

With the return of a healthy Sidney Crosby, the Penguins will have a 100-point season for a fourth consecutive year. Despite the departure of Jordan Staal and Zbynek Michalek, the Penguins boast a group of very talented players in Evgeni Malkin, James Neal, Chris Kunitz and Kristopher Letang.

The additions of Tanner Glass and Brandon Sutter up front will give the team size, grit and depth, while Tomas Vokoun’s signature will allow M-A Fleury to get more rest during the season and perform better in the playoffs.

3.BOSTON BRUINS = 100 points

The Bruins opted for stability next season as their roster will be almost identical to last year.

The most noticeable changes will be the addition of rookie defenseman Dougie Hamilton in replacement of Joe Corvo who went back to Carolina. The other major change is Tuukka Rask being annointed the No.1 goalie, with all-star Tim Thomas taking a sabbatical year.

Because of their depth and their talent, the Bruins will win the Northeast Division for a third consecutive season.

2.WASHINGTON CAPITALS = 101 points

After a sub-par season from Alexander Ovechkin and an injury-riddled campaign for Mike Green, the Capitals are ready to bounce back under new head coach Adam Oates.

A healthy Green, the acquisition of dangler Mike Ribeiro and the emergence of stud goaltender Braden Holty will allow Oates to employ a more offensive style of play that fits his team better.

Despite the departure of Alex Semin via free agency, the Capitals are loaded with offensive weapons who will help them rank among the best teams on the power play this season. A full season of Nicklas Backstrom, now free of concussion symptoms, along with the emergence of youngster Marcus Johansson will give the Caps a very deep threesome at center with Ribeiro—a strength the team has lacked in recent years.

1.NEW YORK RANGERS = 115 points

The Blue Shirts, who finished first in the Eastern Conference last year, will still be the team to beat this season with the addition of superstar Rick Nash. The team didn’t lose any major players via free agency and Glen Sather managed to acquire Nash for depth players (Anisimov, Dubinsky and Erixon).

Sather also managed to add depth and grit up front by signing Taylor Pyatt and Arron Asham. With superstars like Richards, Gaborik, McDonagh, Staal, Girardi and King Henrik in goal, the Rangers boasts the deepest group of talented players in the conference.

Do you agree with the above predictions for the Habs? If not, why?

---
Follow me on Twitter for more updates on the NHL and hockey in general.

Read More