Round One: Eastern Picks

The playoffs are right around the corner, and there are sure to be some pretty great series to watch. The first round match-ups will see some pretty great teams take an early exit in a battle to the finish. The west has been arguably the better of the two conferences throughout the regular season, but at this point, that goes out the window. It’s all about who can win 16 high pressure games.

The Boston Bruins being the Presidents Trophy winner with 117 points is the odds on favourite to go all the way this year. The western conference however boasts six (yes, SIX) teams finishing the regular season with 100 points or more. That includes Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles, Colorado, St. Louis, and Chicago. The east only has four with Montreal and Tampa Bay just squeaking in with 100 and 101 respectively, Pittsburgh has a solid 108, and then Boston at 117. Looking at this and this alone, clearly the ice is tilted toward the Western teams in the amount of contenders they have.

After looking at a number stats and comparing them to the biggest factor, my gut feeling, I’m going to do my best to predict how these playoffs are going to go, and who will be drinking from Lord Stanley’s cup.

­EAST Matchups

Boston VS. Detroit

This match-up will be an interesting one. The Boston Bruins have been a dominating force all season with an ability to run through all four lines and get offense. They have a good combination of scoring talent and grit, and are backstopped by one of the best goaltenders in the NHL. They have a mix of young guys, and veterans with lots of playoff experience. They don’t necessarily have a glaring weakness that any team can truly exploit.

Detroit has been battling through injuries to key players all season long, and have still managed to put up wins. They had an astonishing man-games-lost ranking at 417. Not only did they lose players, but they lost key players in their line-up. They managed to get wins by leaning on young guys like Tomas Tatar and Gustav Nyquist. Now that they have some players back, they could be a tough opponent against the rough Boston Bruins.

I am going to take the Bruins in six. They have the advantage in goaltending and I think they are going to overwhelm and smother Detroit.

Tampa Bay VS. Montreal

Tampa Bay is a team that made the playoffs when nobody expected they would. Normally, they are a solid team, with Stamkos leading the team to victories, but when the now team captain was injured, and injured badly everybody thought they were done for. The Lightning had some young players step up their game, and Ben Bishop continued to make the big saves and help win games.  Montreal and Tampa Bay have been neck and neck the whole way down the stretch battling for home ice advantage, with Tampa Bay edging out the Habs by one point in the final game of the season. Every game has been tight, having three of four go into extra time. Montreal has the advantage in net, but both teams are relatively even in scoring power, and defence with a slight edge to the Bolts. This series will be all about who wants it more, and which goalie steals games. 

I am taking Montreal in seven. They are coming into these playoffs with confidence and a solid line-up all around. Get ready for a great series of hockey.

Pittsburgh VS. Columbus

Pittsburgh has been badly beaten up over the course of the year leading the league by a crazy margin in man-games-lost at 527. They lost guys like Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang. They finished second in the east despite the setbacks, and played as though they were a full roster.  Sidney Crosby is obviously a huge piece for Pittsburgh and could carry his team, but if Marc-Andre Fleury plays anything like he did last playoffs, don’t expect the Penguins to go very far.

Columbus has an excellent goalie in Sergei Bobrovsky, and what I would consider an average line-up. What they lack in super star players they certainly make up for in depth. Almost everyone in the line-up has the ability to chip in offensively.

I am taking Pittsburgh in six. Pittsburgh can match Columbus in depth, but they have more high-end talent and game changers. If Fleury is on point, and can make some big saves like he can in the regular season, Pittsburgh shouldn’t have to many problems winning the series.

New York VS. Philadelphia

New York has solid talent in their top six, and some pretty good depth. They have extremely good goaltending in “King” Henrik Lundquist. He can make huge saves, and is good in high pressure situations. If Martin St.Louis can get his scoring touch going again, New York can definitely do well against Philadelphia.

Philly has a good mix in their line-up. Their goaltending has done well this year with Steve Mason on the back. My concern for Philly is that the Rangers will be able to exploit them, and Philly simply won’t be able to beat Lundquist. I don’t see Philadelphia being a real threat to the Rangers.

I am taking New York in five. New York has better scoring and goaltending. They will just take over Philly and swiftly kick them out.

Summary

These are my picks for the first round in the East. Some of these series' will certainly have some surprises and some upsets, but that is what is so great about the playoffs. You never know what player will step-up his game, and what team will completely collapse. Now, all that matters is winning four of seven.

Thank you for reading! I will have my Western playoff preview up later on today.

Be sure to follow @darrinharmy

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Canadiens-Penguins: Pittsburgh's Power Play Sinks Montreal in Game One

Well that was a letdown, wasn't it?

After the spectacular high that was provided by the Habs incredible Game Seven comeback win over the Caps, the Canadiens came out flat against the Pens.

To be honest, last night's 6-3 loss to the Pens was entirely predictable. It is difficult for a team to ground themselves so quickly after such an emotional high. Having to turn things around two days after their Washington victory didn't work to the Habs' advantage.

Compared to the Capitals series, last night's game was much more balanced but the Habs looked slow and tired, all night long. Even Jaroslav Halak—author of three straight wins versus the Caps—looked to be lacking focus.

That, plus the Habs indiscipline lead the Canadiens downfall as the Pens scored on all four power play's they were given to take a 1-0 series lead.

The Pens got scoring from Sergei Gonchar, Jordan Staal, Kris Letang, Craig Adams, Alex Goligoski, and Bill Guerin into an empty net. The Habs got goals from P.K. Subban—his first in the NHL—Michael Cammalleri, and Brian Gionta.

NOTE** - The Habs lost Andrei Markov on a clean Matt Cooke body check early in the game and he did not return. He will be reevaluated today but the injury to his leg did not look good. His loss could be a crippling blow to the Habs playoff chances.
Jordon Staal also went down with a leg injury shortly after Markov left the game, and he did not return.

Final score: Habs 3 - Pens 6


Game Notes
1. Like the rest of the team, Halak was nothing special.

As much as he was spectacular over his last three games, Jaro Halak was completely ordinary last night against the Pens.  Letting in five goals on 20 shots for a .750 save percentage, Halak was a shadow of the player we saw against the Caps.

Not that the goals were really his fault as the Canadiens let the Pens skate freely in their zone.  Missed assignment, cross ice passes, and poor gap control meant that Halak was left to his own devices on for too many occasions.

Halak was pulled in favour of Carey Price, when the score was 5-2 in order to give him a rest.

On an interesting note, the Pens only managed 20 shots on Halak and he tends to excel when he is seeing 30 or more shots a night.


2. Subban continues to impress.

While the loss of Andrei Markov is potentially crippling to the Canadiens chances in this series, it allowed Subban to take on a bigger role last night.

Playing alongside Marc-Andre Bergeron on the first wave of the power play—after Markov's was injured—Subban was thrust into a much more important role on the team.

With Spacek possibly returning for Sunday's Game Two and Markov likely out for at least the next game, Jacques Martin is sure to lean more heavily on the young Subban and he has the skill level to be able to pick up the slack.


3. The team needs some rest.

The biggest factor in the Canadiens loss last night was their visible fatigue.  They were missing that spark and jump that allowed them to score timely goals against the Caps.  The Canadiens will need to rest up and refocus themselves on the Penguins because if last night was the best that the Pens have to offer, they are a extremely beatable team.

Don't get me wrong, because I do think that the Pens are an excellent team.  However, they are not the Penguins from 2009 and Marc-Andre Fleury looked shaky on many of the saves he made.  I think that whatever happens in this series, that it will end up going six or seven games.


Look Out Ahead!
Last night's game was a write off from the Canadiens and entirely predictable result.  That being said, I believe with the veteran leadership in their room, the Canadiens will regroup and challenge the Pens for the split in Pittsburgh on Sunday.

Jaroslav Spacek could be making his return to the lineup on Sunday and not a moment too soon!


Next Game
The team have today off before playing a Sunday afternoon Game Two at 2 pm EST.  It will be interesting to see how the afternoon game affects the players.  It tends to throw their usual schedules off and you never know how they will react.

Suffice it to say, however, that I expect a much stronger effort from the Habs on Sunday.

so what do you all expect? A better effort from the Habs in Game Two? More of the same? Can they compete with the Pens?

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Post Game Quick Hits: Habs 1 - Pens 3

Last night, the banged-up Pittsburgh Penguins beat the even more banged-up Montreal Canadiens 3 - 1, in regulation. The streak is dead. Long live the streak! Ok, it was a meager streak but the way things have gone so far this year, you have to make each baby step a celebration or you'll be waiting too long to rejoice! So without further ado, here are a few observations from last night's game:

1 - Despite losing the game and being outshot 30 - 19 and outhit 45 to 34, Montreal didn't actually play that bad a game. This team - which looked more like the Hamilton Bulldogs than the Montreal Canadiens - competed on every shift despite having played the night before. However, they looked over match and tired. You could see the effects of missing 8 regulars from their lineup and having played the night before. By the third period, they looked like they needed a collective nap!

2 - Pittsburgh did an amazing job of keeping the Plekanec (with Sergei K and Cammy) off of the scoresheet. Starting with Jordan Staal's line - who was on the ice almost every time Pleky stepped out there - and following through the rest of the lineup, the Pens used the home ice advanatage effectively to get that last line change and hence, the match-ups they needed.

3 - Plekanec continues to establish himself as a top notch center in the NHL. Despite being shut off of the score sheet, Plekanec played inspired hockey all night. He made hits, dug the puck out of the corner, setup plays and was generally combative. Despite having the larger Pittsburgh forwards leaning on him heavily, he was still able to create some chances and even gave Crosby a shot in the chops while battling for the puck.

4 - Price strong play continues. Despite only having a .900 save percentage last night, Price looked confident and firm in the net. He is handling the puck masterfully - which is always a sign of good confidence with Price - he is fighting through screens and traffic to track the puck, and he is moving nicely in his crease. The only blemish on his game last night was the second goal. On that play, Price had stopped a shot from the side of the net but didn't cover the puck up properly. It was loose enough that when Guerin poked at it, it squeezed through his pads and in to make the score 2 - 0. That is one that I am sure Price would like to have back.

5 - The oft heralded organizational depth of the Montreal Canadiens is starting to show. With a bunch of AHL players replacing the missing regulars, in the lineup, we can see that this organization has a bunch of NHL capablity guys. There are not really any superstars among them but they are definitely servicable NHL players. If you look at Pyatt, White, Desharnais and Wyman, these are all guys who are showing that they have the ability, smarts and right attitude to be players in the NHL. Going forward, this could be good for Montreal on the trade front. While these guys can all play in the NHL, most of them are the same or very similar type players. This means that some of them can become expendable.

6 - Sergei Kostitsyn looks like a new man. From his humble interviews with the press to his 'put your head down and work' attitude, he seems, and I do emphasize the word 'seems', to be a player reborn. With two assists and a +3 rating over two games, Sergei looks like he means business. Give him a week or so to further acclimate, and I believe the Montreal might get back a much better player than the one they sent down at the beginning of the season, in Sergei. If he continues to show the right attitude, contribute and play smart hockey, he should definitely have a spot somewhere on this team.

Overall, this past week has shown that, in my opinion, Jacques Martin is a really good coach. Love or hate him or his style there is no questioning the results. Martin has taken a team decimated by injuries and drilled a system into their heads that has resulted in wins over Washington, a shootout loss to Detroit and an insipred comeback win versus Columbus. That was 5 out of a possible 6 points. With the Pittburgh game, that gives them 5 out of 8 points. With one more game - in Montreal on Saturday vs. the Caps - to close out the month of November, Montreal still has a chance to get 7 out of 10 point in five games where I, personally, thought they would get none. Montreal can use the two day break before facing Washington on Saturday, to lick thier wounds. Hopefully they can get back some of their walking wounded from Team Clinic!

K.

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