Game 40: Canadiens vs Lightning

#MTLHockey Preview

Match Up

The Canadiens (26-11-2) return home triumphant after a perfect five-game road trip to play host to the Lightning (25-12-4) Tuesday night. The game starts at 7:30 and airs on RDS and Sportsnet East.

This is the second of five meetings between the Habs and Bolts, and the first of three in Montreal. Carey Price gave up four goals on 23 shots through two periods of play before being pulled for Dustin Tokarski who gave up another three in what was ultimately a 7-1 loss. Steven Stamkos scored a hat trick and Victor Hedman picked up a goal and three assists in the game.

What to Watch

Max Pacioretty and Tom Gilbert each had a goal and an assist on Saturday in Montreal's 4-1 victory over the Penguins. Gilbert finished the night with a +4 rating.

The Lightning have found offense from more than just Stamkos this season, in fact, with 43 points in 40 games, Tyler Johnson is the team's leading scorer. Johnson has two goals and four assists in the last three games and now sits fourth overall in league scoring as well as first in plus/minus at +26.

What's at Stake

First place in the Eastern Conference is on the line Tuesday night in Montreal, with the winner guaranteed to control top spot. The Habs and Bolts each have 54 points heading into the match, one ahead of the Penguins and Islanders, although the Lightning have played two more games than the other three teams.

Who's Out

P.A. Parenteau (undisclosed/head) will not be ready to play Tuesday, he'll miss a second straight game. Bryan Allen also likely won't be available to play against the Lightning, he was placed on waivers Monday afternoon and is expected to join the Hamilton Bulldogs if he is not claimed.

The Bolts are missing Rakdo Gudas (knee), who is scheduled for surgery and is expected to miss a fair bit of action.

What Else

Carey Price is once again the Molson Cup winner for December as the team's player of the month, he was also named the NHL's Third Star of the Week for his 3-0-0 performance. Price is the only Hab to earn the Molson Cup this season, taking home the honor in October and November as well, he's also won the overall Molson Cup as the team's MVP for the season five times in his career, including the last four seasons.

The Question Mark

Do the Canadiens need to add any specific pieces do be considered a true Cup contender this season or are they already there?

Tonight's Show

Join host Steven Hindle along with Kosta Papoulias and Rob Elbaz for the Montreal Hockey Talk Pregame Show as we go live at 6:30 to preview the Canadiens and Lightning.

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Game 4 - Canadiens at Lightning

#MTLHockey Preview

Match-up

The Canadiens (3-0-0) are in Tampa Bay Monday night to face the Lightning (1-0-1) in the last match of their four-game season opening road trip. The game is set to start at 7:30 and will be broadcast by RDS, City-Montreal, and Sun Sports.

This is the first of five meetings between the Habs and Lightning this year. Last season, the Habs went 1-1-2 against the Bolts with their only win coming by way of shootout. The division rivals played four tight games during the regular season last year, with the Lightning taking the only one settled in regulation, a 3-1 win that included an empty net goal to seal the victory. Each of the three other games went to overtime tied 1-1.

What to Watch

The General, Andrei Markov, led the charge (see what I did there?) for the Canadiens Saturday night in their comeback win against the Flyers. Markov got things going with the team’s first goal to break Ray Emery’s shut out bid, and then added two assists to help the Habs draw even. The chemistry between Tomas Plekanec and Alex Galchenyuk continued Saturday night, as Plekanec scored his league best fourth goal of the season and added an assist on Galchenyuk's first marker of the year.

Steven Stamkos is still looking for his first goal of the season. While the Bolts have only played two games, the fact that Stamkos has just 1 assist, is a -1, and has been stopped in his only shootout attempt must be troubling for Lightning fans. On a more positive note, 23-year old defenseman Victor Hedman is off to a strong start, with two goals and an assist already.

What’s at Stake

The Lightning should present the Canadiens with their toughest challenge of the early season. The Bolts will surely be looking to take some revenge on Montreal after the Habs swept Tampa in the first round of last year’s playoffs.

The Canadiens will be also be looking to keep their perfect season alive and return home undefeated after starting the year with four straight road games.

Who’s Out

Alexei Emelin (upper body) was forced to miss Saturday's game against the Flyers. It's unclear whether or not he'll dress for Monday's game.

Rookie-of-the-year favorite Jonathan Drouin has yet to play his first NHL game, he's been sidelined with a thumb injury and doesn't look likely to return in time for Monday's tilt.

What Else

Three times this season the Canadiens have trailed at the end of the first period and three times they’ve battled back to earn wins. Saturday, the Habs overcame their biggest challenge, a 3-0 third period deficit versus the Flyers, but like they had twice already this year, they battled back to draw even and eventually earned their second straight shootout victory.

Last season the Canadiens only won six games in which they trailed after 20 minutes, and just three in which they trailed at the second intermission. This season they've already overcome three first-period and two second-period deficits, and they've only played three games.

The Question Mark

Habs fans, tell us what you are thankful for today.

Tonight’s Show

Join host Steven Hindle along with Kosta Papoulias and Rob Elbaz for the Montreal Hockey Talk Pregame Show as we go live at 6:30 p.m. Monday to preview the Canadiens and Lightning. Danny DiNicolantonio will join us in the second segment to bring you the Lightning perspective.

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Can Max Pacioretty Score 50 Goals In A Season?

Following a very solid 2013-14 campaign during which he recorded 39 goals and 21 assists for 60 points in 73 games, Max Pacioretty will be counted on to provide the bulk of the offense for the Montreal Canadiens this season.

The 25-year-old left winger, who is one the most serious candidates to become the team's next captain, is entering his prime and is ready to breakout offensively. Two years ago, during the season shortened by the lockout, he potted 15 goals and added 24 assists for a total of 39 points in 44 contests, which would have resulted in a 69-point season over a full 82-game calendar.

Last season, he finished only behind Alexander Ovechkin (51 goals in 78 games) in goals per game with a 0.534 goals per game played. If he had not miss three weeks with a left hamstring strain in late October/early November, Max Pax would have scored a prorated 44 goals in 2013-14.

Add the struggles of his friend and centerman David Desharnais to the mix and the 50-goal barrier could have been very well within reach of the power forward. After his first 12 games, Pacioretty had only potted 2 goals and 2 assists for a mere 4 points. This means that from November 19th to the end of the season, the native of New Canaan, Connecticut, recorded 37 goals and 19 assists for 56 points in only 61 games.

If we prorate this goal-scoring production over a full season we get exactly 50 goals for Pacioretty, which indicates us that it is fairly reasonable to predict the first 50-goal campaign for a Habs player since Stéphane Richard potted 51 goals back in 1989-90, which is 25 years ago!

With the arrival of Pierre-Alexandre Parenteau and the maturation of Brendan Gallagher, the David Desharnais-Max Pacioretty duo will finally be able to rely on either one of these two players to play alongside them on the team's first line.

The arrival of Manny Mahlotra will, who will take most of the defensive zone face-offs will also allow head coach Michel Therrien to start his two best lines even more in the offensive zone. Last season, Max Pacioretty started 53.6% of his shifts in the offensive zone, a number that could easily increase to 55% this season, which would allow him and his line-mates to get even more scoring chances.

Over his career, Pacioretty is scoring at a 11.1% pace, which is slightly lower than last year's 14.4%. Still, reaching the 50-goal mark is quite a feat when you consider than most sniper score about 15% of the time. Alex Ovechkin scores on 12.3% of his shot attempts over his illustrious career, but he shots from everywhere! As for Steven Stamkos, he is a true goal scorer and he is scoring on 17.5% of his shots attempts.

If you assume Max Pax scores on 15% of his shots, he will need to stay healthy and shoot more than 333 times on net to reach the 50-goal plateau. While it is quite possible to reach, it's no small feat to accomplish!

Finally, do you think Pacioretty will finally hit the 50-goal mark?

If so, will he reach the 80-point mark in the process?

Finally, who should play with DD and Max? Parenteau or Gallagher?

*******************

No Foolin' Fred Poulin
Follow me on Twitter for more Habs news and discussions.

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Playoff Preview: Canadiens vs Lightning (Round 1, Game 4)

 
Match Up:

The Canadiens take to Bell Centre ice on Tuesday, looking to close out the first round series against the Lightning in front of their faithful. The game starts at 7:00 and airs on RDS and CBC.

The Habs have gone 3-for-3 so far this series and have the first opportunity to eliminate a team from the 2014 playoffs. The Lightning can take solace in the fact 2 of the 3 games could have gone either way, they lost Game 1 in overtime and dropped Game 3 by a goal after a controversial disallowed marker.

What to Watch:

Rene Bourque is on a tear, opening the scoring Sunday with a goal 11 seconds into the game. He finished the night with 8 shots and leads the team with 15 through 3 games. Brendan Gallagher and Lars Eller each have points in all 3 playoff games for the Habs. Eller's point streak stretches back to the regular season, he has 7 points in his last 5 games.

Steven Stamkos is up to 4 points in the playoffs after assisting on both Tampa Bay goals Sunday Night. Despite recording 3 straight losses, the play of Anders Lindback has improved during the playoffs. Lindback made 28 saves in Sunday's 3-2 loss and did what he could to keep his team in the game despite a handful of top-quality scoring chances for Montreal.

What's at Stake:

The Canadiens have a chance to close out this series and move on to the second round for the first time since 2010. A win on Tuesday would see the Habs as the first team through to the second round in this year's playoffs, giving them plenty of all important rest and time to prepare for the winner of Boston-Detroit. A win for the Lightning would keep their playoff dreams alive and shift the series back to Tampa for Game 5.

Who's Out:

The Canadiens are missing Travis Moen (concussion) for at least one more game, but he's received the green light for contact. Alex Galchenyuk (knee) is still out for the time being.

The Lightning are missing Ben Bishop (elbow). Steven Stamkos, who missed the end of the second period in Game 3 is expected to play game 4.

What Else:

The Canadiens are looking to sweep their first playoff Series since eliminating the Buffalo Sabres in 4 en route to their last Stanley Cup in 1993. The haven't been on the verge of a sweep since that series, but they have been swept 3 times since, once by the Lightning. The Habs have gone up 3 games to none 30 other times in their history, winning Game 4 in 22 of those cases.

The Question Mark:

Which teams look most to you like Cup threats so far? Are the Habs in that mix?

Let us know what you think, leave us a comment or send us a tweet with the #MTLHockey hashtag on Twitter.

Be sure to tune into the Montreal Hockey Talk Pregame Show an hour before the puck drop and the Post Game Show 5 minutes after the final siren. Join the live conversation by using the #MTLHockey hashtag on Twitter.

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Playoff Preview: Canadiens at Lightning (Round 1, Game 2)

 
Match Up:

After a back and forth Game 1 that finished with Overtime heroics by Dale Weise and Daniel Briere, the Canadiens and Lightning square off for Game 2 Friday night in Tampa Bay. The match starts at 7:00 and can be seen on RDS and CBC.

The Canadiens went up 1-0 in the best of seven series with a 5-4 OT win on Wednesday, but despite out-shooting the Bolts 44-25 and looking dominant for most of the match, the game stayed tight the whole way through. Neither team was able to build more that a 1-goal lead in the game, and the longest a team was able to hold onto their lead was a shade over 3 minutes.

What to Watch:

The Canadiens got contributions from all 4 lines in Wednesday's game, and defenseman Alexei Emelin chipped in with a pair of assists. Lars Eller and Brian Gionta found a bit of chemistry on Wednesday, collaborating on a pair of goals, including a shorthanded marker that erased Tampa's second and final lead of the game. Daniel Briere assisted on Dale Weise's OT winner keeping Briere over the point-per-game mark in the playoffs, he has 110 points in 109 career playoff games.

In Game 1, Steven Stamkos did what Steven Stamkos does best, score goals. The 24-year old potted a pair of goals for Tampa, including one of an a play that started with Stamkos collecting the puck behind his own net and charging down the ice to create the opportunity. Alex Killorn picked up a goal and an assist in his NHL Playoffs debut.

What's at Stake:

The Canadiens looked dominant in Game 1 but still gave the Lightning ample opportunity to steal a victory. If the Habs can maintain their dominance through Game 2 and return to Montreal with a 2-0 series lead, the Bolts will be hard pressed to come back.

Who's Out:

Travis Moen (concussion) is close to a return but won't be back for Game 2. Alex Galchenyuk (knee) has been ruled out for the opening round.

The Lightning are still without Ben Bishop (elbow) who could return to action late in the series but will miss the next few starts. Ondrej Palat (upper body) left Wednesday's game in the third period and will be a game time decision on Friday. Ryan Malone has been de facto suspended after being charged with a DUI and cocaine possession. Any future discipline will be determined based on the terms of the NHL's Substance Abuse and Behavioral Health Program.

What Else:

The Canadiens' power play woes continued on Wednesday, they haven't scored with the man advantage since Daniel Briere potted a late power play marker against the Buffalo Sabres on March 25, 10 games ago. While Brian Gionta did score on a penalty shot in Montreal's last game of the season, the Habs have gone 0-for-26 on the power play in their last 9 games.

Thankfully, as bad as they've been with the man advantage, they've been just the opposite killing penalties. The Canadiens finished the season fourth overall on the penalty kill and opened up the Playoffs by holding the Bolts 0-for-2 on the power play and even scored a shorthanded goal in the process.

The Question Mark:

After some unlikely heroics from Dale Weise, who do you think scores the winner in Game 2?

Let us know what you think, leave us a comment or send us a tweet with the #MTLHockey hashtag on Twitter.

Be sure to tune into the Montreal Hockey Talk Pregame Show an hour before the puck drop and the Post Game Show 5 minutes after the final siren. Join the live conversation by using the #MTLHockey hashtag on Twitter.

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Pregame Preview: Canadiens at Lightning (Game #77)

 
Match Up:

The Canadiens (43-26-7) are in Tampa Bay to face the Lightning (41-25-9) Tuesday night in what might be their most important match before the post-season. The game starts at 7:30 and airs on RDS and TSN-Habs.

This is the fourth and final regular season game between the Habs and Bolts, although the two teams are primed to meet in the first round of the playoffs. The three previous meetings have all gone to overtime with the teams deadlocked 1-1 at the end of 60 minutes each time. The Lightning have taken 2 of 3 wins so far, Nate Thompson scored both Tampa goals including the OT winner the last time these teams met.

What to Watch:

Since they've been united, David Desharnais, Max Pacioretty and Thomas Vanek have been on fire. The trio has combined for 13 goals and 27 points in their last 7 games. Vanek leads the way with 6 goals and 10 points over that span.

Ryan Callahan has 9 points in 13 games since joining the Lightning at the deadline. His 3-game point streak was snapped in Detroit on Sunday, but he had 3 goals and an assist leading up to that. Steven Stamkos has played 13 games since returning from injury, and while it took him until his fourth game back to find the back of the net, he's picked up 9 goals and 13 points in his last 10.

What's at Stake:

The Canadiens and Lightning are separated by just two points in the standing and the Bolts can make up the difference with their game in hand. Tuesday's game won't guarantee the winner a second place finish in the Atlantic division, but it will definitely give that team a big boost heading into the final stretch. On top of that, a Habs win would clinch a playoff berth an extend their season best win streak to 6 games.

Who's Out:

Tomas Plekanec returns to action Tuesday night after missing Saturday's game for personal reasons. Alexei Emelin also returned to Montreal briefly but is expected to play against the Lightning. Dale Weise (wrist), Travis Moen (concussion), Brandon Prust (upper boday) and Josh Gorges (hand) are still out for the Canadiens.

The Lightning are healthy heading into Tuesday's game.

What Else:

Even though these teams have faced off 3 times already this season, the Canadiens will be taking on a much different Lightning team than they've seen so far. Steven Stamkos will be on the ice for the first time to face the Habs this year, and Ryan Callahan will battle the Canadiens for the first time in a Lightning uniform.

Of course, the Bolts will be without Martin St. Louis, who was traded for Callahan at the deadline. St. Louis had 40 points against the Canadiens in 49 games, Stamkos has 8 goals and 14 points in 19 games versus the Habs while Callahan has 7 goals and 11 points in 23 games.

The Question Mark:

We want to hear from you, what's been the best and worst surprises of this season for the Habs?

Let us know what you think, leave us a comment or send us a tweet with the #MTLHockey hashtag on Twitter.

Be sure to tune into the Montreal Hockey Talk Pregame Show an hour before the puck drop and the Post Game Show 5 minutes after the final siren. Join the live conversation by using the #MTLHockey hashtag on Twitter.

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Habs/Lightning Post-Game November 12th 2013

The Canadiens fell to the Stamkos-less Lightning on Tuesday night in a shootout as the Canadiens have only been on a skit recently only having won 1 game in their last 7.

With their missing star in Steven Stamkos it should have been a game the Canadiens have won on paper. In Tampa Bay, John Cooper has done as good a turn around for the Lightning as Patrick Roy has done for the Avalanche this season.

It was a low-scoring game and it seemed as though the Lightning should have been credited with a goal but the review showed that there had been incidental contact on Carey Price and that negated the goal for the Bolts.

Daniel Briere made a return to the ice after missing 10 games due to a concussion. He scored a goal in his return and seemed to find his stride in the later parts of the game.

It was very disappointing to see that the EGG line did not pick up where it left off from last game. especially given that this team was ready to be had. Despite the outstanding play of Ben Bishop this season alot of credit should be given to how coach Cooper has instilled a more defensive focused system with his players that the whole team has bought into.

The Canadiens did look sharp on the penalty kill especially in the later parts of the game when they killed off three in the third period alone and were able to hold back the Bolts short-handed during overtime, which lead to a penalty shoot-out.

The Canadiens had very little opportunities to score in the early going against Bishop only taking 13 shots towards goal, but were able to get 10 shots on goal in the third which helped break the shut-out bid for the netminder.

Price looked good for the Canadiens as he stopped 44/45 shots he faced and really did not seem to have mch help from his teammates who are usually lining up to stop shots in front of him. The Lightning were a good puck moving team but that should not mean that on home ice the opposition outplays them especially being short their super-star.

The Canadiens need to find their rhythm before they dig themselves a hole they will come to regret. Especially in these very significant division games that make every point count. The shoot-out point should not be taken as a moral victory. They shouldn't have been outplayed on home ice that much and needed a far better outing than the ones they have given their fans of late.

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NHLPA & RBC Play Hockey Charity Challenge

Hey HabsAddicts !!!

Take a look at this video, starring Canadiens' RFA defenseman, P.K. Subban. He and former minor hockey teammate, Steven Stamkos, organized the RBC Play Hockey Charity Challenge. This NHLPA catches the lighter side of both NHL Superstars.

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Survey Says?, NHL Brand Damaged, More...

Happy Hump Day, HabsAddicts!!!

There is no question that this second NHL lockout in less than ten years has damaged public perception of the league. Fans across North America are beginning to look at other types of sports entertainment to fill their hockey void.

A poll conducted between December 11th and 16th surveyed individuals from different six regions across Canada. The poll, conducted by NRG Research Group and Peak Communications, asked "Do you think the NHL lockout will be settled in the next couple of weeks; in the new year in time for a shortened season to be played; not until it's too late for games to be played this season; or don't you care?"

Any astounding 58% of people surveyed said they could care less about the NHL lockout, while 5% thought the two sides could strike a deal before the New Year. Another 8% answered that a deal could be done in early 2013, allowing enough time for a shortened 48-game season. Out of the over 800 surveyed, 25% thought that it's already too late to salvage a meaningful season. The remaining 4% either did not know about the lockout or refused to answer.

The NRG and Peak survey's numbers pale in comparison to the percentage of disgruntled fans who responded to a poll conducted online on CBC Sports. Their survey, composed of ten questions, showed an incredible 68% of the over 7000 respondents believed that the NHL season was already lost.

Habs and Hockey News and Notes:

- While NHL owners chose not to use a report by Level5 Strategy Group to gain favour in the PR battle with the NHLPA, Roy MacGregor of the Globe and Mail explains the survey's economic damage comparison between the NHL lockout and the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010.

- Cam Cole of Postmedia News looks at how he thinks the dissolution of the NHLPA would result in what he calls, "glorious chaos".

- Episode 10, and the final final broadcast of Montreal Hockey Talk's Lockout Shows for 2012, will drive you crazy with legal jargon and llama flatulence. Join host Corey Collard as he tries to corral Jay Ferrar, Nick Murdocco and the punctually challenged Dave Kellerman.

- The Baby Habs lost another close one last night, this time to the Peoria Rivermen by a final of 4-3 in a shootout. Brendan Gallagher scored in regulation and the shootout, while Stefan Chaput had the other two tallies for the 'Dogs.

- Finally, Dave Stubbs spoke to P.K. Subban, who was busy trash talking about the Tampa Bay Lightning's Steven Stamkos' team in advance of the RBC Play Hockey Charity Challenge tonight at 7 PM in Toronto.

(Photo: Andy Clark/Reuters)

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Owners & Players Only, Brodeur Sound Off, More...

Happy December HabsAddicts!!!

After the end of Thursday's negotiating session, Gary Bettman suggested that executives of the NHL and NHLPA recluse themselves from the next bargains session. This would allow players and owners to meet face to face for the first time in these negotiations.

While it remains to be seen who will participate from both parties, ESPN.com's Scott Burnside and Craig Custance debate the pros and cons of such a meeting.

But it begs the question, "Is this idea presented in good conscience, or is it an attempt by the owners to throw Gary Bettman under the bus?"

Habs and Hockey Notes:

- New Jersey Devils' goaltender Martin Brodeur sounds of to the Gazette's Dave Stubbs about what it's like to have to trudge on after a fourth work stoppage.

- Ryan Dadoun of NBC Sports discusses how the longer the NHL Lockout drags on, the more likely Tampa Bay superstar Steven Stamkos may be pushed to play in Europe.

- After Minnesota Wild goalie Josh Harding was diagnosed with Multiple Sclerosis, Michael Russo of the Star Tribune explains how Harding turned such bad news into an inspiration for others.

(Photo: Mayes/Edmonton Journal)

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Habs/Lightning Post-Game, Price, Damphousse, Mayer and More

Morning Hab addicts!

In a bit of a rush this morning, so I will leave you to the, as always, excellent reading selection below.

Quickly though, two important pieces of news dropped yesterday.

First, due to family reasons, Vincent Damphousse has retracted his candidacy for the General Manager position.

Second, Carey Price has been officially diagnosed with a concussion and will miss the "rest" (okay, two games) of the season.

Are you disappointed by Damphousse's withdrawal? And would you give callup Robert Mayer a chance to play tonight, the second of back-to-back games?


Habs News

HabsWorld.net - Writers Weigh In: Gauthier's Gone, Part Two

Hockey Inside/Out - About last night …

La Presse - Directeur général: le Canadien met ses lignes à l’eau

RDS - V. Damphousse se retire de la course

TSN - Price diagnosed with concussion, will miss final three games

TSN - Canadiens down Lightning as Stamkos held off scoresheet

TSN - Cybulski: Canadiens need to hire Oilers' Lowe

Hockey News

ESPN - Debate: Oh, what a night

IIHF - Important, not indispensable

RDS - LHJMQ : Gourde, joueur par excellence

Louis' Note: Our colleague, Fred Poulin, wrote a piece on Yanni Gourde a few weeks ago.

Sports Illustrated - Mad Mike Milbury’s act is obsolete

The Hockey News - Kennedy: Reasons for optimism from non-playoff teams

USA Today - Newark mayor rips Devils owner over arena dispute

USA Today - Franzen, Red Wings upend Blues 3-2 in SO

(Photo by Richard Wolowicz/Getty Images)

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The Magical Fourth Season: Myth or Reality?

In the era of in-depth analysis, sabermetrics and advanced statistics, more and more fantasy experts are talking about the magical fourth season for NHL players.

Most of you will ask "what is the magical fourth season exactly?"

Roughly speaking, offensive players make big jumps in their production in years two through six. In the fourth year, a quarter of players see offensive output increase by 25 percent.

For players entering their second, third, fourth, fifth, or sixth seasons, increases are of roughly 14%, 17%, 24%, 14% and 9% respectively. The increase is about 5% for the seventh season and beyond.

As you can see, on average, fourth year players see the biggest increase in their offensive production.

However, this only applies to forwards, as defensemen generally take more time to develop, Erik Karlsson being the exception rather than the rule.

Now let's study the offensive production of ten talented NHL players and see how they are doing so far in 2011-12.

1. Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning

After a rough rookie season where he recorded only 23 goals and 46 points in 79 games, mainly because of the failed Barry Melrose experiment, the Lightnings' first overall draft pick in 2008 has developed into the NHL's most lethal goal scorer. After seasons of 95 and 91 points, Stamkos currently has 50 goals and 34 assists for 84 points in 70 games, putting him on pace to score 98 points over a full season. As you can see, his offensive production has been fairly steady over the past three seasons and we can conclude Stamkos had his offensive surge during his sophomore season instead.

Offensive outburst = season 2

2. James Neal, Pittsburgh Penguins

After playing two and a half seasons in Dallas, Neal was traded to the Penguins midway through last season. After a rough stretch of only six points in 20 games with to conclude the 2010-11 campaign, one had to wonder if Neal would ever produce surrounded by talented players such as Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang.

After seasons of 37, 55 and 45 points, Neal has found his niche alongside Malkin and Chris Kunitz on the Penguins' first line. Through 69 games this season, Neal has scored 31 goals and 36 assists for 67 points for a pace of 80 points in 82 games. This would represent a 25-point increase over his second best season.

Offensive outburst = season 4

3. Blake Wheeler, Winnipeg Jets

Another player traded at the trade deadline last season, Wheeler played two and a half seasons in Boston before heading to Winnipeg via Atlanta. Wheeler, who wasa steady offensive player during his first three campaigns with 45, 38 and 44 points respectively, exploded this season with the Jets recording 17 goals and 41 assists for 58 points in 68 games, having missed two games with an injury.

Wheeler, who's currently on fire with 20 points in his last 12 games, is n track to finish the year with 68 points in 80 games. This total would represent a 23-point increase of his second best campaign.

Offensive outburst = season 4

4. Max Pacioretty, Montreal Canadiens

Another player who has been red-hot lately with 12 points in his last 7 contests, Pacioretty dressed only for 37 games last season after beginning the season in the AHL and ending the year on the disabled list thanks to a debatable hit by Zdeno Chara.

The power forward entered his fourth season looking to rebound and establish himself as one of the Habs best players and he certainly did. After 68 games, he has recorded 30 goals and 28 assists for 58 points, missing three games because of a suspension. The left winger is currently on pace for 67 points in 79 games with Montreal, a 43-point increase of his highest point total of 24 points in 37 games last season.
Offensive outburst = season 4

5. T.J. Oshie, St. Louis Blues

After missing 25, 6 and 33 games in the past three seasons respectively, Oshie has finally been healthy this year for the league-leading Blues. Through 70 games, Oshie has contributed 18 goals and 30 assists for 48 points playing on a very balanced offense. He is currently set to produce 56 points over a full season.

The problem with the assessment of Oshie's offensive production has been that he has yet to play a complete season in the NHL, which is why he hasn't been able to fulfil his full potential until now.

Offensive outburst = season 5?

6. Wayne Simmonds, Philadelphia Flyers

Traded in the off-season with Brayden Schenn by the Kings in exchange for Mike Richards, Simmonds has been a pleasant surprise this season for the Flyers.

The gritty forward has already topped his career bests in goals and points with 22 goals and 19 assists for 41 points in 70 games this season. Over a full campaign, this would translate into a 48-point season, an eight-point increase over his career best. While this doesn't seem impressive at first glance, it shows a real progression in the third-liner's offensive output.
Offensive outburst = season 4

7. Jamie McGinn, Colorado Avalanche

Traded at the deadline to the Colorado Avalanche by the San Jose Sharks in exchange for Daniel Winnik and T.J. Galiardi, McGinn has parlayed his extra playing time into a decent hot streak, scoring 9 points in his last 7 games.

Buried on the depth chart in San Jose, McGinn had never been able to crack their top two lines and get quality power play time. Now on the Avalanche's top line with Paul Stastny and David Jones, McGinn has been able to contribute offensively on a consistent basis. Prior to this campaign, McGinn had never recorded more than 13 points, a feat which he achieved in 59 games during his sophomore year. The winger is currently on pace for 39 points this season, which would represent a 26-point increase over his career best.

Offensive outburst = season 4

8. Nikolai Kulemin, Toronto Maple Leafs

After improving his offensive numbers every year since his arrival with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2008-09, Kulemin has hit a wall despite his team's early offensive success. Playing on a line with Mikhail Grabovski and Clarke MacArthur, the Russian winger has been underwhelming this year, recording a dismal 7 goals and 21 assists for 28 points in 70 games.

After a career-season in 2010-11in which he produced 30 goals and 27 assists for 57 points, Kulemin's season appears over after he sustained a broken finger earlier this week. Kulemin is the perfect example of a player who exploded offensively during his third season instead, posting 21 more points than his previous career best of 36 points in 2009-10.

Offensive outburst = season 3

9. Jakub Voracek, Philadelphia Flyers

Acquired along with a 1st round draft pick in 2011 (Sean Couturier) in the trade that send Jeff Carter to Columbus last summer, Voracek was expected to partly compensate for Carter's offensive contributio this season. While his acquisition has not been deemed a failure, Voracek has not translated his great offensive talent into solid numbers either.

With the Flyers, the forward has only 13 goals and 24 assists for 37 points in 66 games this season, a 44-point pace over a full year. Not exactly what I call the offensive outburst that many fantasy experts predicted for Voracek who had scored 38, 50 and 46 points respectively during his three campaigns with the Blue Jackets.
Offensive outburst = season 5?

10. Chris Stewart, St. Louis Blues
Acquired midway through last season in a blockbuster deal that sent Eric Johnson to the Avalanche for Stewart and Kevin Shattenkirk, Stewart finished the 2010-11 season with 23 points in 26 games with the Blues.

With such a good production and entering his fourth season, everyone expected to see Stewart post career numbers in 2011-12! Inste, Stewart responded with a miserable effort, notching only 15 goals and 12 assists for 27 points in 69 games with the Blues, on pace for a disappointing 31-point campaign. After a 64-point effort during his sophomore season, Stewart continued with 53 points in 62 games in 2010-11, before turning into no more than a depth player this season under Davis Payne and Ken Hitchock.

Offensive outburst = season 2

Conclusion

As you can see, most of the above players are currently having their magical fourth season (5 out of 10) and only Jacub Voracek and T.J. Oshie have yet to see a real offensive explosion during their first four years in the NHL. Stamkos (2nd season), Stewart (2nd season) and Kulemin (3rd season) all experienced their offensive outburst earlier than expected.

There are some other notable fourth-year players in the league,  such as Patrick Hornqvist, Patrik Berglund, Lauri Korpikoski, Artem Anisimov and Zach Smith, that were not discussed at length here.

In short, this theory is not a myth, especially if you exclude the fourth-year players that already had their offensive outburst and exclude them from your analysis.
Next season you should really consider these fourth-year players when trying to determine which players could turn into the best bargains at your fantasy draft.

Stay tuned, as after the season, I will provide you with a list of potential sleepers (fourth-year players) worth watching for your 2012-13 hockey pools.

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Follow me on Twitter for more updates on fantasy hockey and the NHL in general.

(Photo by Mike Ridewood/Getty Images North America)

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Sunday Shinny, Habs' Goalies, Modano, Stamkos, Training camps and more...

NHL News

HabsAddict.com - New Sunday Shinny Podcast - August 28, 2011
http://pc.habsaddict.com/2011/08/franchise-weekend-morning-shows-sunday.html

Hockey Inside/Out - Late links
http://www.hockeyinsideout.com/news/late-links

Two on THN must-watch list
http://www.hockeyinsideout.com/news/two-on-thn-must-watch-list

Habsworld.net - Dividing up the goalie games
http://www.habsworld.net/article.php?id=2569

TSN - FORMER BLACKHAWK HENDRY ACCEPTS TRYOUT OFFER WITH WILD
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=374598

HOCKEY CANADA WANTS MORE NON-BODYCHECKING OPTIONS FOR YOUTH
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=374532

CONNOLLY READY TO GET BACK TO HEALTH, SUCCESS IN TORONTO
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=374374

SHANAHAN PREPARES TO ASSUME NEW ROLE AS NHL DISCIPLINARIAN
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=374481

ESPN.com - Mike Modano to decide next month
http://espn.go.com/dallas/nhl/story/_/id/6899799/mike-modano-fence-playing-again

Ins and outs: Who will be ready for camp?
http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/10858/ins-and-outs-who-will-be-ready-for-camp

THN.com - Dr. Boucher: Learning to train properly
http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/41603-Dr-Boucher-Learning-to-train-properly.html

VIDEO: One-on-one with Tampa Bay Lightning sniper Steven Stamkos
http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/41602-VIDEO-Oneonone-with-Tampa-Bay-Lightning-sniper-Steven-Stamkos.html

Kennedy: America's current hockey generation its all-time best
http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/41599-Kennedy-Americas-current-hockey-generation-its-alltime-best.html

Backchecking: Jaroslav Jirik
http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/41600-Backchecking-Jaroslav-Jirik.html

(Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images North America)

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Team 990 gets Habs, Winnipeg, NHL awards, NHL draft, Rumours and more...

Habs News

HabsAddict.com - Press Release - The Team 990 Becomes Official Habs Radio Broadcaster
http://www.habsaddict.com/2011/06/press-release-team-990-becomes-official.html

2011 NHL Draft: Why the Montreal Canadiens Need to Trade Down by Willey
http://aa.habsaddict.com/2011/06/2011-nhl-draft-why-montreal-canadiens.html

Press Release - The Team 990 Becomes Official Habs Radio Broadcaster
http://www.habsaddict.com/2011/06/press-release-team-990-becomes-official.html

Hockey Inside/Out - Canadiens’ draft record better than you think
http://www.hockeyinsideout.com/news/canadiens-draft-record-better-than-you-think

Habs face Winnipeg in new team’s home opener Oct. 9; Price earns three first-place award votes
http://www.hockeyinsideout.com/news/winnipegs-home-opener-vs-habs-on-oct-9-report

Hamrlik to get contract offer: report
http://www.hockeyinsideout.com/news/hamrlik-to-get-contract-offer-report

RDS - Subban sur l'équipe étoile des recrues
http://www.rds.ca/canadien/chroniques/321681.html

Le CH sera du 1er match à Winnipeg
http://www.rds.ca/canadien/chroniques/321677.html

Hamrlik recevrait bientôt une offre
http://www.rds.ca/canadien/chroniques/321649.html


NHL News
PERRY PICKS UP HART, THOMAS TAKES HOME VEZINA AT NHL AWARDS
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=369715

WINNIPEG NICKNAME AND HEAD COACH EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=369713

LIGHTNING FORWARD STAMKOS BECOMES FACE OF NHL 12
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=369724

ISLANDERS ANNOUNCE LEASE AGREEMENT TO REPLACE AGING ARENA
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=369722

THN.com - Proteau: Recap of the NHL Awards Show
http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/40980-Proteau-Recap-of-the-NHL-Awards-Show.html

Adam Larsson: THN’s No. 2-ranked draft prospect
http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/40942-Adam-Larsson-THNs-No-2ranked-draft-prospect.html

VIDEO: One-on-one with NHL draft prospect Dougie Hamilton
http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/40963-VIDEO-Oneonone-with-NHL-draft-prospect-Dougie-Hamilton.html

Latest Habs, Leafs, Sens & Winnipeg News – June 22, 2011
http://spectorshockey.net/wordpress/2011/06/22/latest-habs-leafs-sens-winnipeg-news-june-22-2011/

(Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images North America)

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Habs lose, post game, Stamkos, Desjardins, Wisniewski, Desharnais and more...

Post game: Tampa 4 - Habs 1

HabsAddict.com - Montreal-Tampa: Bad Penalties Trip up Habs in Tampa
http://www.habsaddict.com/2010/12/montreal-tampa-bad-penalties-trip-up.html

Habs Inside/Out - Game 38: Canadiens scorched by Lightning
http://www.habsinsideout.com/main/42310

Ho-hum, another L
http://www.habsinsideout.com/main/42402

Desjardins se paie le CH
http://www.rds.ca/canadien/chroniques/312360.html

TSN - STAMKOS NETS FANCY GOAL; DESJARDINS WINS DEBUT VS. HABS
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=347432

ESPN.com - Steven Stamkos' four points help Lightning zap Canadiens
http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/recap?gameId=301230020


News
RDS - Wisniewski heureux d'être à Montréal
http://www.rds.ca/canadien/chroniques/312382.html

TSN - WISNIEWSKI HOPES TO MAKE MARK WITH HABS ON AND OFF THE ICE
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=347384

Spector's Hockey - NHL Rumors – Thursday, December 30, 2010
http://spectorshockey.net/2010/12/nhl-rumors-thursday-december-30-2010/

THN.com - THN.com Blog: The two sides of James Wisniewski
http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/37363-THNcom-Blog-The-two-sides-of-James-Wisniewski.html

Around The AHL: Mid-season team assessments
http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/37364-Around-The-AHL-Midseason-team-assessments.html

(Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America)

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Montreal-Tampa Bay: Carey Price Shines But Habs Stumble

by Kamal Panesar

Last's night well hyped game between the Montreal Canadiens and the Guy Boucher-coached Tampa Bay Lightning delivered on all of its promise.

Fast paced, lots of scoring chances, great hits, and an overall entertaining match to watch.

This game showcased the difference between a coach who can adapt and one who cannot as the Canadiens outplayed Tampa in the first but were outcoached the rest of the way.

Boucher's team made the necessary adjustments after the first period and took the play to Habs for final 40 minutes—outshooting the Canadiens 48-25 on the night.

But the story of the game was again Carey Price. Stopping 44 of 48 shots, he was the only reason this game wasn't over in the second period.

Price was two minutes and twelve seconds away from banking another well earned victory until P.K. Subban took a bad, late-game penalty that lead to Tampa's tying goal.

There was a questionable trip on Dustin Boyd on the play that fans thought should have been a penalty. Nothing was called, however, and Steven Stamkos had the empty net to tie the game.

Subban was at is again in overtime trying to beat three Tampa defenders himself, leading to a scoring chance the other way. Tampa scored the game winner of off the ensuing faceoff to seal the deal.

This game was a victory that Price deserved but the team in front of him did not.

Final Score: Tampa 4 - Habs 3 (OT)
Habs scorers: Maxim Lapierre (1), Tomas Plekanec (1), Andrei Kostitsyn (1)
Tampa scorers: Brett Clark (1), Martin St. Louis (1), Steven Stamkos (3), Ryan Malone (1)


Ugly Moment of the night
Jousting with Steve Downie for most of the game, Lapierre had a dangerous push/hit on Downie in the second period that sent the Tampa forward flying head-first into the boards. This was a stupid and dangerous play by Lapierre and I would not be surprised to see him get a couple of games for his act.

Here is video of the hit.


Do you think he'll get suspended?


Game Notes

1. Price was the only reason this game wasn't over in the second period.

Carey Price looked stable and confident all night and it looks like his victory against the Penguins did him a lot of good.

Out of the 44 saves that Price made on the night, several were of the stupendously spectacular variety; glove saves, standing tall in his net, giving them nothing to shoot at, and deftly handling the puck—which is Price's "tell" that he is feeling good.

If he keeps playing like this, goaltending will not be an issue for the Habs this year. For all the hater out there, try to remember last night's performance if/when things don't go so well for Price later in the year.


2. Tomas Plekanec and Michael Cammalleri are magic together.

Plekanec looks like a man possessed on the ice and looks even better than last year. The chemistry that he and Cammalleri have together is palpable and evidenced by the sweet pass Cammy made to Pleks to make it a 2-0 game.

Plekanec also setup Andre Kostitsyn for his first of the year and really looks like he is hitting his peak as a player. If he keeps playing like this I fully expect him to get close to 80 points this season and challenge for the Selke Trophy.

Cammalleri, for his part, also came to play this year. He's just got to stop taking dumb retaliatory penalties. He knows better than that and is only hurting the team when he has those brain cramps.


3. Pouliot played a great game.

Last night, Pouliot was shooting, hitting, skating, digging pucks out of corners, and doing what he has to do to be an effective top-6 player. When he plays that way, Scott Gomez and Brian Gionta suddenly have so much more room to skate and they become much more effective.

While that line hasn't done anything yet this season, there were a few flashes of greatness last night.

If Pouliot can keep it up, they should start finding the scoreboard soon enough.


4. Subban needs to calm down and try to do "less".

It is no coincidence that P.K. Subban played his worst NHL game the same night he was facing a team coached by Guy Boucher—his former coach in Hamilton.

Boucher knows Subban's tendencies and had his team taking advantage of his sometimes wild play. Often being pressured, Subban was pinching at the wrong time, missed assignments, took unnecessary risks, and turned the puck over a few times leading to scoring chances.

He'll soon learn that you don't have that extra split second in the NHL.

On the play just before winning goal, Subban tried an end-to-end rush that was broken up at Tampa blue line. This sent the play back into the Canadiens zone for a scoring chance that was stopped by Price.

On ensuring defensive zone faceoff, Tampa scored off of a goal-mouth scramble. None of this would have happened if Subban had passed the puck rather than trying to beat three defenders all by himself, with about one minute left in overtime.

He needs to learn how to pick his spots a little better, and he will. But right now he is young and full of exuberance and he just needs to settle down and simplify his game in order to be more effective.

Last night it almost seemed like he was trying to please or play to the crowd instead of sticking to his game.

Subban also took bad and untimely penalties—like his perhaps questionable slashing call that lead to Tampa's tying goal with about 1:20 left to play in the third period. This is actually becoming a trend for P.K. over the first three games of the season and is a result of the extra attention he is getting from the opposition.

Once Andrei Markov is back in the lineup, that should help deflect some attention off of Subban and perhaps settle his game down.


4. Eller-Lapierre-Halpern were excellent all night.

This trio looks like they have started to develop some chemistry together. Last night, Lars Eller was on fire and his skill and hard work lead directly to the Tampa turnover that ended up on Lapierre's stick and in the back of the net for a 1-0 lead.

If they can keep it up, that will be a formidable third line that should provide about 40-goals this season and some necessary secondary offensive support.


5. Markov can't come back soon enough!

The Canadiens' power play went 0-for-3 last night and has yet to score a goal over three games this season.

That is just not good enough.

With each game that passes it becomes more and more evident how important Markov is to the Habs defense and to their power play.

Last night, they did have Roman Hamrlik back in the lineup and he provided a stabilizing presence—playing with Ryan O'Byrne—on the back end.

The problem is the duo of Subban and Jaroslav Spacek is just not working together. They have been playing together since the beginning of the season and, for whatever reason, they do not complement each other very well.

Each player seems to be doing their own thing and there is very little communication or cohesion. The surprising part is the Jacques Martin is still keeping them together.

Subban should clearly be playing with Hamrlik, and maybe once Markov is back, that is what will happen. For now, however, the coach should be trying something else.

But alas, Martin is not usually the quickest to react and tends to be a bit rigid.


Standings and Next Game

Despite the loss, the Canadiens did pick up one point in the standings entirely due to the strong play from Carey Price.

The Canadiens are off today before taking on the Buffalo Sabres tomorrow night in Buffalo before taking on the Ottawa Senators in Montreal on Saturday.

With two games in two nights, Alex Auld might get his first game action on Friday or Saturday depending on what Coach Martin decides.

(Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

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