Habs/Blues Post Game November 5th 2013

Oshie scores the lone shootout goal against Price

It was a back and forth game between the Blues and Canadiens which needed a penalty shoot-out to settle the score. The Blues eventually won the game when TJ Oshie, who scored the only goal in the shoot-out, put one by price with a forehand top corner.

The Canadiens came off of back to back losses against west coast teams and were facing a team that some voted as the cup favorites going into the season in the St-Louis Blues. In a very strong central division they sit 4th. They have a few games in hand against their opponents and were eager to gain ground with the red hot Avalanche. The Blues rank 7th in goals against per game, the Canadiens sit 4th in that category and needed to hold down the NHL's 2nd ranked offense.

The Blues got on the board 2 minutes into the game when David Backes outmuscled Douglas Murray behind the net and fed Alexander Steen in the slot who sent a wrist shot by Price. Steen has been on a torrid pace this season scoring his league leading 13th goal. 

The Blues maintained pressure and strong passing against the Canadiens throughout the first. Being under constant pressure, they forced the Habs to take four penalties throughout the game to send the Blues on the man-advantage. The Habs killed all four penalties and after each kill attempted to use that momentum to gain the Blues zone but didn't generate many scoring chances in the first.

With nearly five minutes in the first George Parros wanted to spark the team by getting into a fight against Reaves. This gave the Canadiens an emotional boost. Offensively they started to get more pucks on net and while they didn't score in the first they got their best opportunity to score when a shot from Markov gave way to a  juicy rebound that no one was able to put by Halak. 

The Canadiens got off to a good start in the second period and eventually took the lead with a pair of goals.

They tied the game with a drive by Andrei Markov to the front of the net that left a puck wide open for Rene Bourque who put the rebound off of the pad of Halak to the back of the net.

The Blues jumped right back onto the attack and had it not been for some timely saves by Price the Habs would have been down in the minutes following the tieing goal.
The rest of the period the Canadiens elevated their rate of play. Though many of the odd-man rushes were broken up by the Blues back-check.
Max Pacioretty was attempting to be a catalyst for the offense and despite coming off of an injury was getting back into his role as a top line player for the Habs. While there was still rust showing in his game, he showed a ton of determination that seemed to inspire the younger players like Gallagher and the goal scorer, Bournival.
Bournival's goal was scored all thanks to strong pressure put on Jay Bouwmeester by Brian Gionta. The puck was coughed up right onto the stick of Bournival in the slot who ripped a slap-shot by Halak.
The Canadiens held back the Blues attack and had a majority of the puck possession to end the period.

The Habs didn't let up in the third. They came out with the same intensity that they finished with in the second. A lot of pressure and puck control, a role reversal from the first period. That extra step to push the Blues into their zone, beating them to the puck and while the Habs are not typically a physical team they were forcing the Blues to make awkward passes and turnover the puck, despite having a lackluster night off the face-offs finishing with only a 36% success rate.
When it looked like the Habs had all the momentum, the Blues took a point-shot midway through the third by Kevin Shattenkirk and wound up making a series of deflections before hitting Chris Stewart and beating Price.
The Blues nearly shot themselves in the foot when they took a penalty with less than a minute in the game. David Backes hit the net off and the Habs received a penalty shot for delay of game. Tomas Plekanec was called upon for the penalty shot but Halak came up big and stopped him to preserve the game for the Blues.

Ultimately the Canadiens proved to match-up well against the Blues who have seen a lot of success this season. Positives included the ability to not let-up the pressure, while a bad bounce could have cost the Canadiens two points. They came away with one on a night that many may have believed they'd fall short. A big game by Price and the Habs shot blockers prevented more dangerous goal scoring chances from being a determining factor.

While the shooters in the shoot-out were questionable by Therrien it was the first time the Canadiens were in a shoot out this season so it was a test to see where his shooters stand.

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The Magical Fourth Season: Myth or Reality?

In the era of in-depth analysis, sabermetrics and advanced statistics, more and more fantasy experts are talking about the magical fourth season for NHL players.

Most of you will ask "what is the magical fourth season exactly?"

Roughly speaking, offensive players make big jumps in their production in years two through six. In the fourth year, a quarter of players see offensive output increase by 25 percent.

For players entering their second, third, fourth, fifth, or sixth seasons, increases are of roughly 14%, 17%, 24%, 14% and 9% respectively. The increase is about 5% for the seventh season and beyond.

As you can see, on average, fourth year players see the biggest increase in their offensive production.

However, this only applies to forwards, as defensemen generally take more time to develop, Erik Karlsson being the exception rather than the rule.

Now let's study the offensive production of ten talented NHL players and see how they are doing so far in 2011-12.

1. Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning

After a rough rookie season where he recorded only 23 goals and 46 points in 79 games, mainly because of the failed Barry Melrose experiment, the Lightnings' first overall draft pick in 2008 has developed into the NHL's most lethal goal scorer. After seasons of 95 and 91 points, Stamkos currently has 50 goals and 34 assists for 84 points in 70 games, putting him on pace to score 98 points over a full season. As you can see, his offensive production has been fairly steady over the past three seasons and we can conclude Stamkos had his offensive surge during his sophomore season instead.

Offensive outburst = season 2

2. James Neal, Pittsburgh Penguins

After playing two and a half seasons in Dallas, Neal was traded to the Penguins midway through last season. After a rough stretch of only six points in 20 games with to conclude the 2010-11 campaign, one had to wonder if Neal would ever produce surrounded by talented players such as Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang.

After seasons of 37, 55 and 45 points, Neal has found his niche alongside Malkin and Chris Kunitz on the Penguins' first line. Through 69 games this season, Neal has scored 31 goals and 36 assists for 67 points for a pace of 80 points in 82 games. This would represent a 25-point increase over his second best season.

Offensive outburst = season 4

3. Blake Wheeler, Winnipeg Jets

Another player traded at the trade deadline last season, Wheeler played two and a half seasons in Boston before heading to Winnipeg via Atlanta. Wheeler, who wasa steady offensive player during his first three campaigns with 45, 38 and 44 points respectively, exploded this season with the Jets recording 17 goals and 41 assists for 58 points in 68 games, having missed two games with an injury.

Wheeler, who's currently on fire with 20 points in his last 12 games, is n track to finish the year with 68 points in 80 games. This total would represent a 23-point increase of his second best campaign.

Offensive outburst = season 4

4. Max Pacioretty, Montreal Canadiens

Another player who has been red-hot lately with 12 points in his last 7 contests, Pacioretty dressed only for 37 games last season after beginning the season in the AHL and ending the year on the disabled list thanks to a debatable hit by Zdeno Chara.

The power forward entered his fourth season looking to rebound and establish himself as one of the Habs best players and he certainly did. After 68 games, he has recorded 30 goals and 28 assists for 58 points, missing three games because of a suspension. The left winger is currently on pace for 67 points in 79 games with Montreal, a 43-point increase of his highest point total of 24 points in 37 games last season.
Offensive outburst = season 4

5. T.J. Oshie, St. Louis Blues

After missing 25, 6 and 33 games in the past three seasons respectively, Oshie has finally been healthy this year for the league-leading Blues. Through 70 games, Oshie has contributed 18 goals and 30 assists for 48 points playing on a very balanced offense. He is currently set to produce 56 points over a full season.

The problem with the assessment of Oshie's offensive production has been that he has yet to play a complete season in the NHL, which is why he hasn't been able to fulfil his full potential until now.

Offensive outburst = season 5?

6. Wayne Simmonds, Philadelphia Flyers

Traded in the off-season with Brayden Schenn by the Kings in exchange for Mike Richards, Simmonds has been a pleasant surprise this season for the Flyers.

The gritty forward has already topped his career bests in goals and points with 22 goals and 19 assists for 41 points in 70 games this season. Over a full campaign, this would translate into a 48-point season, an eight-point increase over his career best. While this doesn't seem impressive at first glance, it shows a real progression in the third-liner's offensive output.
Offensive outburst = season 4

7. Jamie McGinn, Colorado Avalanche

Traded at the deadline to the Colorado Avalanche by the San Jose Sharks in exchange for Daniel Winnik and T.J. Galiardi, McGinn has parlayed his extra playing time into a decent hot streak, scoring 9 points in his last 7 games.

Buried on the depth chart in San Jose, McGinn had never been able to crack their top two lines and get quality power play time. Now on the Avalanche's top line with Paul Stastny and David Jones, McGinn has been able to contribute offensively on a consistent basis. Prior to this campaign, McGinn had never recorded more than 13 points, a feat which he achieved in 59 games during his sophomore year. The winger is currently on pace for 39 points this season, which would represent a 26-point increase over his career best.

Offensive outburst = season 4

8. Nikolai Kulemin, Toronto Maple Leafs

After improving his offensive numbers every year since his arrival with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2008-09, Kulemin has hit a wall despite his team's early offensive success. Playing on a line with Mikhail Grabovski and Clarke MacArthur, the Russian winger has been underwhelming this year, recording a dismal 7 goals and 21 assists for 28 points in 70 games.

After a career-season in 2010-11in which he produced 30 goals and 27 assists for 57 points, Kulemin's season appears over after he sustained a broken finger earlier this week. Kulemin is the perfect example of a player who exploded offensively during his third season instead, posting 21 more points than his previous career best of 36 points in 2009-10.

Offensive outburst = season 3

9. Jakub Voracek, Philadelphia Flyers

Acquired along with a 1st round draft pick in 2011 (Sean Couturier) in the trade that send Jeff Carter to Columbus last summer, Voracek was expected to partly compensate for Carter's offensive contributio this season. While his acquisition has not been deemed a failure, Voracek has not translated his great offensive talent into solid numbers either.

With the Flyers, the forward has only 13 goals and 24 assists for 37 points in 66 games this season, a 44-point pace over a full year. Not exactly what I call the offensive outburst that many fantasy experts predicted for Voracek who had scored 38, 50 and 46 points respectively during his three campaigns with the Blue Jackets.
Offensive outburst = season 5?

10. Chris Stewart, St. Louis Blues
Acquired midway through last season in a blockbuster deal that sent Eric Johnson to the Avalanche for Stewart and Kevin Shattenkirk, Stewart finished the 2010-11 season with 23 points in 26 games with the Blues.

With such a good production and entering his fourth season, everyone expected to see Stewart post career numbers in 2011-12! Inste, Stewart responded with a miserable effort, notching only 15 goals and 12 assists for 27 points in 69 games with the Blues, on pace for a disappointing 31-point campaign. After a 64-point effort during his sophomore season, Stewart continued with 53 points in 62 games in 2010-11, before turning into no more than a depth player this season under Davis Payne and Ken Hitchock.

Offensive outburst = season 2

Conclusion

As you can see, most of the above players are currently having their magical fourth season (5 out of 10) and only Jacub Voracek and T.J. Oshie have yet to see a real offensive explosion during their first four years in the NHL. Stamkos (2nd season), Stewart (2nd season) and Kulemin (3rd season) all experienced their offensive outburst earlier than expected.

There are some other notable fourth-year players in the league,  such as Patrick Hornqvist, Patrik Berglund, Lauri Korpikoski, Artem Anisimov and Zach Smith, that were not discussed at length here.

In short, this theory is not a myth, especially if you exclude the fourth-year players that already had their offensive outburst and exclude them from your analysis.
Next season you should really consider these fourth-year players when trying to determine which players could turn into the best bargains at your fantasy draft.

Stay tuned, as after the season, I will provide you with a list of potential sleepers (fourth-year players) worth watching for your 2012-13 hockey pools.

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(Photo by Mike Ridewood/Getty Images North America)

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