What Is P.K. Subban Really Worth?

By Coach K and Francois Dumais

Since the announcement of an agreement in principle between the NHL and the Players’ Association, Habs’ fans have had one thing on their minds:

How long before the Canadiens sign RFA defenseman P.K. Subban?

With the recent signing by the New York Rangers of Michael Del Zotto, who is represented by the same agent as Subban, Don Meehan, the comparables game has once again come front and centre. Del Zotto signed a two-year, $5.1 Million contract on January 13^th, 2013.

There are many in the media who claim that Subban is using L.A. Kings’ defensive stalwart Drew Doughty, and his eight-year, $56 Million contract as a viable comparable. 

That leaves a huge gap between those comparables alone ($4,450,000 per season). However, numbers can’t define the importance of P.K. Subban alone.

With the announcement by Habs’ GM Marc Bergavin that he has no intention of trading P.K. Subban, it concretizes his importance in the future plans of the Canadiens. After all, Subban was on the ice an average of 39.7% of the time last season.

The Stats Don’t Lie

If you want to talk about comparables, you need only look at four of the NHL’s youngest defensemen. For the purposes of this article, we added John Carlson of the Washington Capitals to the mix, along with Del Zotto, Doughty and Subban.

Strictly from an offensive perspective, Subban finished behind our other examples in goals with seven, although he had 29 assists, giving him second behind Del Zotto. If he and his agent want to use Drew Doughty as a primary comparable, it doesn’t bode well for P.K. Over the past three seasons, he’s averaged 20 points less than the Kings’ D-man. That said, his points-per-game is mere 0.03 behind Doughty, due to Subban’s limited use in his first NHL season.

In overall ice-time, Subban (24:17 per game) is a mere 36 seconds on average behind Doughty (24:53 per game). Subban is second among our four defensemen in terms of TOI on the power play and penalty killing. Michael Del Zotto (PP) and John Carlson (PK) lead those respective categories.

Last 20 Games May Be Subban’s Best Case

Using a smaller sample size from last season, that being the last 20 games of their respective seasons, Subban takes the lead over our four other defensemen in goals, assists and points (4-9-13). Doughty and Del Zotto were behind him with three goals, six assists and nine points respectively.

While Del Zotto led our group on the power play with an average of 4:35 TOI (Time On Ice) per game, P.K. was right behind him in second with 3:39 TOI per game. On the penalty kill, while Doughty had a TOI per game of 2:00, Subban had a whopping 3:39 TOI per game. Overall, Subban led everyone in overall TOI per game with an average of almost 26 minutes.

Top 10 Among His Peers

If you look at Subban’s overall ranking among his NHL peers, he is ranked sixth from the top 50 defensemen in the league from an offensive perspective, with an overall score of 723. Only Zdeno Chara (BOS), Shea Weber (NSH), Kevin Shattenkirk (STL), Dan Boyle (SJS) and Alex Pietrangelo (STL) are ranked ahead of him. Doughty ranked 26^th, while Del Zotto ranked 14^th.

So What Does He Deserve To Be Paid?

If you look at our comparibles, there are solid arguments from both sides of the coin. The Rangers have a much stronger supporting cast on defense for Del Zotto than the Canadiens have for Subban. P.K.’s importance is just as high to the Habs as that of Doughty to the Kings.

If Subban and Don Meehan want to be fair to everyone, including themselves, then an average salary of $4.5 Million is a reasonable number, in our opinion, to ask for. As far as length of term is concerned, with the wealth of defensive prospects in the Canadiens’ organization, signing Subban for more than three years would be a colossal mistake.

Ultimately, it’s a question of organizational importance…for Subban. Does he want to be part of the refit of the league’s most storied franchise, or does he want to think of himself first? Compare what you will, only time will really tell.

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How Much Money Is PK Subban Worth?

As soon as the new CBA is ratified by both the NHL owners and the players, teams will finally be allowed to start making roster moves such as signing free agents and calling up players from their farm teams. In the case of a few teams, that also means signing their restricted free agents as soon as possible and bringing them into the team’s training camp.

The most notable RFAs still unsigned being forwards Jamie Benn (Dallas Stars) and Ryan O’Reilly (Colorado Avalanche), as well as rearguards Michael Del Zotto (New York Rangers), Dmitry Kulikov (Florida Panthers) and PK Subban (Montreal Canadiens).

PK Subban is still a restricted free agent (Icon SMI)

But now, let’s concentrate on the talented, but controversial Canadiens defenseman who is a now cornerstone of the team’s defensive corps. The 23 year-old defenseman did not go oversee during the lockout, preferring to make several TV appearances for CTV Montreal as a weatherman and Sportsnet as a hockey analyst between periods.

While the popular Subban may have a future on television, his current career is as an NHL defenseman and he must now concentrate on accepting the right contract from Habs’ general manager Marc Bergevin. The native of Toronto, Ontario, is coming off his entry-level contract and prior to the NHL lockout, it was rumored that Bergevin had offered him a three-year deal worth $11 million ($3.66 million/year), which Subban and his agent Don Meehan politely declined.

But how much money per year is Subban really worth?

Right now, the Canadiens payroll for 2013-14 is a tad over $60.16 million linked to 16 players and Subban’s new contract could push Montreal over the $64.3 million cap for next season. The team’s precarious financial position for next year likely means that Bergevin cannot afford to give Subban a contract similar to the eight-year deal worth $56 million ($7 million/year) that Los Angeles defenseman Drew Doughty signed prior to last season, which is reportedly the kind of contract that the charismatic rearguard was looking for this summer.

On one hand, while Subban is a very talented puck-carrying defenseman, he has only played two full seasons in the NHL and has yet to establish himself as a true #1 defenseman on and off the ice. On the other hand, Doughty had seasons of 59 and 40 points prior to signing his lucrative long-term pact. While under the new CBA teams can re-sign their own players to a maximum of eight years, do you really think that Bergevin wants to be tied up long term to a player who had a few scuffles with his own teammates Hal Gill and David Desharnais during practice last season? Subban doesn’t have unanimous backing in the Habs’ dressing room as he has a tendency to show off and be overly talkative, both on an off the ice.

Yesterday, team captain Brian Gionta even said that he had not speak with Subban for the past six months and that the best way to find PK recently is by turning on your television. As you can see, Subban’s strong presence in the media seems to bother some veterans, and until he can prove them wrong and show the organization and the fans that he has become more mature, disciplined and hard-working, the Bleu Blanc Rouge should err on the cautious side and offer him a short term contract.

PK likes to be in the spotlight (photo: Rob Elbaz – The Hockey Writers)

Since we know that any player whose contract has expired can declare himself an unrestricted free agent if he is at least 27 years of age or has at least seven years of service as an NHL player, the Canadiens would be best to offer Subban a three-year contract or less so that Subban is not older than 26 years old when the contract ends.

This way, the Canadiens would be able to assess Subban’s true value and contribution to the team and ensure that he doesn’t become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the pact. Now suppose Subban and Meehan agree to a three-year pact with Montreal: How much per year is Subban really worth?

Let’s have a look at some young defensemen with comparable offensive numbers who recently signed long-term deals with their respective teams:

Cam Fowler, 21, Anaheim Ducks: 2011-12 stats: 5 goals and 24 assists for 29 points in 82 games -> five-year contract with an average value of $4 million

Tyler Myers, 22, Buffalo Sabres: 2011-12 stats: 8 goals and 15 assists for 23 points in 55 games -> seven-year contract with an average value of $5.5 million

Erik Johnson, 24, Colorado Avalanche: 2011-12 stats: 4 goals and 22 assists for 26 points in 73 games -> four-year contract with an average value of $3.75 million

Erik Karlsson, 22, Ottawa Senators: 2011-12 stats: 19 goals and 59 assists for 78 points in 81 games -> seven-year contract with an average value of $6.5 million

Victor Hedman, 22, Tampa Bay Lightning: 2011-12 stats: 5 goals and 18 assists for 23 points in 61 games -> five-year contract with an average value of $4 million

John Carlson, 22, Washington Capitals: 2011-12 stats: 9 goals and 23 assists for 32 points in 82 games -> six-year contract with an average value of $3.96 million

SOURCE: CAP GEEK

As we can see, most of these players received long-term deals at an average value of approximately $4 million per year except for Erik Karlsson who earned a contract similar to Doughty’s contract, but he won the Norris Trophy following his career season in 2011-12, so we can undoubtedly say he deserved this contract.

Following the extensive analysis above, I am willing to predict that Marc Bergevin will offer a three-year deal worth $13.5 million (or $4.5 million/year) to PK Subban, or an increase of  $2.5 million over his previous offer. With that in mind, Subban would be foolish to refuse this offer and hold out during the team’s training camp as a refusal would tarnish his reputation towards fans and harm the Canadiens’ chances at making the playoffs this season.

How much do you think Subban will earn per year? What will be the term of the deal? 

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A long-time Joe Sakic fan, Fred, 34, is a freelance sports writer and translator. Fred earned a Bachelor of Translation in 2002 at Laval University in Quebec City. He also writes on the Montreal Canadiens for thehockeywriters.com and he is an associate editor and a baseball columnist on Dobberbaseball.com. He is also fluent in English, French and Spanish.

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