Showing posts with label nick m. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nick m. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Season Review: The Good & The Bad

Greetings Habs Addicts,

Well the NHL season is almost over. The Los Angeles Kings are one win away from taking home their second Stanley Cup in the past three years. Very impressive considering they were one loss away from being swept in the first round by the San Jose Sharks. The New York Rangers have battled, but they are in no way on the same level as the Kings. As great as our Canadiens played this year - especially in the playoffs - it's hard to say we would have given the Kings more of a battle. They are just so strong.

The Habs had a tremendous playoff run and showed a lot of growth as a team as they went along. After miserable regular seasons, Lars Eller and Rene Bourque came on strong in the post-season. Eller was the top point-getter up front with 5 goals and 13 points in 17 playoff games. Bourque led the club with 8 goals after scoring just 9 in the regular season. P.K. Subban elevated his play back to his Norris Trophy winning form in the playoffs, leading the team with 14 points in 17 games, including 5 goals. He was a terror against the Boston Bruins, with 4 goals and 7 points in that series alone. Carey Price stood on his head and continued his tremendous season until it was abruptly cut short in the Eastern Finals after a collision with the Rangers' Chris Kreider injured his knee. Unheralded Dustin Tokarski stepped in for Price and held his own with Henrik Lundqvist, but ultimately the Habs fell to the Rangers in six games.
Photo Credit: AWinningHabit.com

But now the off-season approaches. The NHL draft is just over two weeks away on June 27-28 in Philadelphia. Free Agency begins July 1st - three weeks away. The Canadiens have a glut of free agents, including both key contributors and some spare parts. Captain Brian Gionta is unrestricted, as is defensive stalwart Andrei Markov. Trade-deadline acquisition Thomas Vanek is the biggest name available and has made his intentions known all season long that he is looking to test the waters. After a very disappointing post-season, where he failed to make an impact on offense and was playing on the fourth line by the end, it's hard to determine exactly what Vanek's value will be. Vanek claimed he was healthy but could not find chemistry with Tomas Plekanec after being removed from the Max Pacioretty and David Desharnais pairing. Most pundits have him heading home to Minnesota. Depth defenders Mike Weaver, Francis Bouillon and Douglas Murray are all unrestricted. Only one of those is expected back and for the teams' sake it better be Mike Weaver. Weaver was a tremendous pick-up at the deadline, bringing veteran leadership and a shot-blocking prowess to the line-up as well as a right-handed shot. Paired with a youngster like Nathan Beaulieu, they could make a very effective 3rd pairing next season. The biggest contract of the off-season will undoubtedly be going to P.K. Subban, whose two-year bridge contract expires. Subban will be a restricted free agent, but Marc Bergevin should be quick to sign arguably the team's best player before another NHL team submits an offer sheet to the 24-year old all-star.

It will be an interesting summer to say the least. But before all that excitement begins, lets take a look at the good and the bad that happened during the 2013/14 season.

Forwards

Good: Max Pacioretty was without a doubt the best forward for the Canadiens this season. Scoring a career high 39 goals, he finished one goal shy of being the first Habs player to reach 40 goals since the 1993/94 season (Vincent Damphousse had 40). Pacioretty finished with a team-leading 60 points in 73 games... After starting the season in a horrible funk where he had just one assist in the first 21 games and even had the mayor of Montreal calling for his demotion to Hamilton, David Desharnais responded after he was reunited with Pacioretty and finished the year with 16 goals and 52 points in 79 game... Tomas Plekanec scored 20 goals and 43 points in 81 games and finished +11 in a shutdown role for the Canadiens. Plekanec made an strong argument for a Selke nomination as one of the best defensive forwards in hockey. Paired up with Brian Gionta, they were a formidable penalty-killing duo. Captain Gionta finished the year with 18 goals and 40 points in 81 games... Brendan Gallagher saw his scoring pace slow down from his rookie year, but brought tremendous energy and drive to the net all season long. He was a presence on the powerplay with 8 of his 19 goals coming on the man-advantage. For the season, Gallagher contributed 19 goals and 41 points while appearing in 81 games... Trade-deadline acquisition Thomas Vanek found chemistry with Desharnais and Pacioretty and the trio paced the Canadiens down the stretch and into the playoffs. Vanek had 6 goals and 15 points in 18 regular season games as a Canadien... Michael Bournival made the team out of training camp and the youngster got his feet wet at the NHL level. Spending most of the season on the checking line, Bournival provided 7 goals and 14 points in 60 games, but missed time after suffering a concussion. Bournival has tremendous speed and upside and should take another step forward as a sophomore next season.

Bad: Lars Eller started the season strong as he was paired up with Brendan Gallagher and Alex Galchenyuk. The "EGG line" was the team's top offensive trio for the first 18 games but Eller fell off tremendously after that line was broken up and after putting up 12 points through the first 18 games, Eller only added 14 more over the next 49. Eller was also a team-worst -15 on the year... Alex Galchenyuk started the year strong but while he showed flashes of brilliance and potential, he did not improve on his rookie season. Injuries limited the sophomore to only 65 games, and he contributed 13 goals and 31 points but was a -12 on the year. A revolving door of linemates did not aid his development either... Brandon Prust missed time due to injuries again and did not provide a similar offensive contribution as last year. He was an effective penalty killer and dropped the gloves frequently. Shoulder injuries limited his effectiveness and he was prone to taking dumb penalties at crucial times in the game. Prust finished with 6 goals and 13 points along with 121 penalty minutes in 52 games... Daniel Briere was signed by Marc Bergevin to provide scoring and did so in limited minutes. However, his minutes were limited because he never managed to earn the trust of Michel Therrien and the coaching staff nor could they seem to find a fit for him on the roster. He came up with some big goals but after signing a two-year/$8 million dollar deal, Briere provided the club with only 13 goals and 25 points in 69 games played... George Parros was a non-factor. Brought in to provide toughness, Parros suffered a horrible concussion during the season opener in a fight with the Toronto Maple Leafs' Colton Orr. This was the first of two concussions suffered on the year. Overall, Parros looked tentative and slow and was a -6 with one assist in 22 games played. He racked up 81 penalty minutes while averaging only 4:33 of ice time per game. A waste of a roster spot, essentially... Travis Moen played in 65 games and finished with 2 goals and 12 points. He played a more inspired game physically compared to last season but still contributed very little overall. A revolving door of Moen, Prust, Bournival, Parros along with Ryan White and Dale Weise comprised the fourth line all season long. They provided various degrees of toughness and the odd point here and there but were relatively interchangeable when healthy. Having six fourth liners on a 23 man roster is not a good thing in today's NHL... Lastly, Rene Bourque was acquired in a trade for Mike Cammalleri. Since that deal, he as provided nothing to the lineup except for a $3.3-million cap hit. Beyond disappointing sums up Bourque's uninspired effort this regular season. No physical presence and often a healthy scratch. Bourque went from 27 goals in Calgary to 9 this year, finishing with 16 points in 63 games. If not for his playoff performance, this year would have been a complete wash for Bourque.

Defense

Good: P.K. Subban followed up his Norris Trophy winning season by contributing a career high 53 points while playing a full 82-game season. His shooting percentage was down this season and he only managed to score ten goals with four of them coming with the man advantage. Subban was a member of the Canadian Olympic team as an alternate and won a gold medal in Sochi. While his lack of playing time may have irked him, he was the ultimate professional in how he handled the situation and certainly learned from the experience which served him well in the playoffs this year. Subban is one of the most electrifying players in the NHL and easily one of the most dynamic skaters of any blueliner... Andrei Markov had another solid yet unspectacular season. The veteran workhorse logged an average of 25:14 minutes per game, playing both power-play and penalty kill and contributed 7 goals and 43 points in 81 games. Markov has certainly lost a step in terms of speed at his age, but proper positioning has allowed him to continue to play at a high level, as evidenced by his +12 rating on the year... Josh Gorges provided leadership and shot-blocking while providing next to nothing offensively. Another typical Gorges season... Mike Weaver was a solid addition at the trade deadline, blocking shots and adding a valuable right-handed shot on the 3rd pairing.

Bad: P.K Subban clearly regressed defensively compared to last season. This is one of the reasons why Team Canada coach Mike Babcock did not trust him with regular minutes at the Olympics. Habs coach Michel Therrien benched him on various occasions throughout the year due to poor play hurting the team. Subban did not see very much time killing penalties and this hurt him in the Norris voting this season as his offensive numbers ranked right up there with the league leaders... Alexei Emelin returned from a serious knee injury suffered last season and was a shell of his former self. He was a liability on the right side when paired with Markov and turned the puck over far to often. He was still a ferocious hitter but jeopardized positioning on order to do so... Douglas Murray proved to be one of the worst defensemen in the NHL this past season. After not being re-signed by the Pittsburgh Penguins, 'Crankshaft' signed a one-year deal late in training camp with the Canadiens. Corsi and Fenwick ratings proved his ineptness but were not needed as the naked eye could see that Murray cannot skate and was a tremendous liability at even strength. While he remained a skilled penalty killer and at-times ferocious hitter (just like Steven Segal, if you came right at Murray he would hit you hard but cannot hit a moving target) he provided 2 assists offensively and was a -12 in 52 regular season games. Highly unlikely he returns to Montreal or any other NHL team next season... Francis Bouillon played big minutes on big pairings for Michel Therrien, much to the chagrin of pundits everywhere. Bouillon, 38, should have been nothing more than a reserve defenseman this season but in turn saw the ice in 52 games while providing the club with 2 goals and 8 points while finishing at a -5 rating. His high water mark was the overtime winner in the huge late-season comeback win against the Ottawa Senators that sparked the Habs torrid pace entering the playoffs... Jarred Tinordi and Nathan Beaulieu each enjoyed a cup of coffee at the NHL level while excelling for the Hamilton Bulldogs of the AHL. Tinordi and Beaulieu each contributed 2 assists in 22 and 17 games, respectively. The Canadiens would have been better served having these two rookies play bigger minutes and gain valuable expereince over the time given to ageing veterans Murray and Bouillon but that was Therrien's decision... Raphael Diaz had 11 assists in 46 games with Montreal but was most often a healthy scratch before he was finally traded to the Vancouver Canucks during the season for forward Dale Weise. Diaz was a Corsi standout, often ranking as the Habs best defender according to the metric. To show that advanced stats do not always tell the story, Diaz was subsequently dealt to the New York Rangers for a 5th round pick at the deadline by Vancouver and has been a healthy scratch for most of the playoffs. His lack of physical game and turnover prowess earned him a spot in coach Michel Therrien's doghouse right from the beginning.

Goaltending

Good: Carey Price. Olympic gold medalist. All-World goaltender. Price appeared in 59 games this season, and did miss some time directly after Sochi to heal an injury suffered at the Olympics. Price had a record of 34-20-5 with a 2.32 goals-against average and a .927 save percentage. Price also notched 6 shutouts and kept the Canadiens in many games they had no business participating in. Price took the necessary steps this season to cement his status amongst the elite at the position. His calmness and leadership took over. This was the player the Canadiens drafted 5th overall... Peter Budaj had another solid year in a backup role. Great in the locker room and a good mentor for Price. Statistically, Budaj was average with a 10-8-3 record and a 2.59 goals-against and a mediocre .909 save percentage. Budaj had one shutout... Dustin Tokarski appeared in three games for the Canadiens before his breakout playoff performance. Tokarski had an impressive start against the Anaheim Ducks, which he stood tall and made 39 saves in a 4-3 overtime win. Tokarski also had a surprise start against the Buffalo Sabres, where he notched a shutout in a 2-0 win. Overall, Tokarski had a 1.84 goals-against and a .946 save percentage while going 2-0 on the year. Tokarski should battle Peter Budaj for the job of backup to Carey Price, provided the club does not trade Budaj this off-season.

Bad: Peter Budaj showed in the post-Sochi stretch that he cannot handle the bulk of the work load if Price is injured and is better suited as an occasional starter. The goal-tending was consistently solid all year long and without the goal-tending being what it was, this club would not have had the season it did.

Front Office/Coaching Staff

Good: Marc Bergevin is in the running for General Manager of the year and for all the right reasons. His off-season moves did not pan out as expected. George Parros' days as an NHLer are over. Douglas Murray no longer has the speed to play at the NHL level without being extremely sheltered by the coaching staff in terms of usage. Daniel Briere produced when given the opportunity but did not mesh with his line-mates nor did he seem to gain the trust of the coaching staff. Briere did as much as he could with his limited minutes and limited line-mates, but when the team is investing $4-million per season in you, your coaches better get maximum value out of that deal and Michel Therrien certainly did not. While his off-season acquisitions did not pan out well, his in-season moves did. Trading future free-agent Rafael Diaz, who had fallen out of favour with the coaching staff for speedy grinder Dale Weise was brilliant. Weise was a force in the playoffs and turned into a fan favorite for his tenacity. He reminds a lot of fans of Steve Begin. Landing Thomas Vanek for Sebastian Collberg was fantastic work at the trade deadline and to top things off, he also brought in Mike Weaver for future considerations. Bergevin also signed future backup goaltender Dustin Tokarsi to a contract extension before his playoff experience could have upped the cost of signing him... Stephane Waite was brought in as the goaltending coach and his work showed immediate dividends as Carey Price had a breakout season and both Peter Budaj and Dustin Tokarski were solid. A change was needed and bringing in the guy who mentored Antti Niemi and Corey Crawford to Stanley Cup wins wasted no time getting the best out of Carey Price... Michel Therrien took some risks in the playoffs, inserting Nathan Beaulieu into the lineup for Game 6 and 7 against the Boston Bruins and the rookie responded with an assist in both games. He also made the decision to start Dustin Tokarski over Peter Budaj after Carey Price went down and the rookie did all he could as the Habs fell in the playoffs.

Bad: Michel Therrien was a tale of two coaches this year. His dump and chase preference proceeded to hamper the offensive output of his team, as the squad was built around speed puck possession and not large grinders who can win corner battles. He was often outmatched by opposing coaches in terms of line match-ups and his preference to play ageing vets Francis Bouillon and Douglas Murray over the youth of Jarred Tinordi and Nathan Beaulieu was mind-boggling at times. Young forwards Lars Eller and Alex Galchenyuk did not show many signs of development and P.K Subban seemed to regress after his Norris Trophy season. For a coach who was brought in because of his ability to work with young players having coached Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in Pittsburgh, his reliance on ageing veterans was frustrating. At times it seemed the Canadiens were winning despite Therrien and not because of Therrien. He stepped up his game in the playoffs and had the team firing on all cylinders against the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Boston Bruins however could not seem to adjust his style of play against the New York Rangers. His insistence of using a point-shot strategy against the NHL's best shot-blocking team was like hammering a square peg into a round hole. Or P.K Subban hammering a puck into the shin guards of Ryan McDonagh. His inability to adapt against the Rangers cost his team in the series. Overall, Michel Therrien has the trust of his players and never lost his locker room. The comeback win against Ottawa proved that and this team came back to win a bunch of games in the third period this year. Michel Therrien had this team playing hard for him, which is a credit to him despite all the questionable decisions he makes.

Overall, this was a very satisfying season for Habs fans. The bitterness of the playoff loss to Ottawa subsided as the team came out and developed into one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference despite many media types predicting a non-playoff season for the squad. This will be a pivotal off-season for Marc Bergevin but should be an exciting one as well. There is lot of promise on this roster and the 2014-15 season should show our young players take more strides towards greatness.

Have a great off-season, Habs Addicts!

Thanks for reading and following the team all year long!

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Nick Malofy is a transplanted Montrealer, currently living in evil LeafLand. He is a contributor here at HabsAddict.com and give him a follow, as he can often be found rambling on Twitter.

Monday, June 2, 2014

Monday Musings: Rangers Shutdown The Habs

Greetings Habs Addicts,

The magical playoff run is over.

The New York Rangers proved to be too much for the Canadiens to handle as they fell 1-0 in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Final. The Rangers limited the Canadiens to 18 shots on goal, including just 5 in the third period to win the best-of-seven game series 4-2. Obviously, losing Carey Price was a big blow to the Habs but their inability to generate any consistent offense five-on-five or on the powerplay was the real story. The Canadiens are a team built around speed, but the Rangers proved to be the faster and stronger team throughout the series. As such, they now have the opportunity to lose to face the Los Angeles Kings in the Stanley Cup finals. The Kings defeated the Chicago Blackhawks 5-4 in overtime of Game Seven of the Western Conference Final last night marking their third Game Seven win of this years playoffs.

Canadiens post-game salute to the fans.
- Michel Therrien was outcoached by Alain Vigneault throughout this round of the playoffs. Therrien was phenomenal against the Lightning and throughout the Bruins series. He must be commended for making the smart decision to insert Nathan Beaulieu into the lineup late in the Boston series. The kid had two assists in his two games as the Canadiens knocked off the Bruins. Therrien also made the risky decision to go with youngster Dustin Tokarski over veteran backup Peter Budaj after Carey Price was injured in Game One of the Rangers series. Tokarski matched up well with Henrik Lundqvist and was the only Canadiens player to truly show up on the ice in Game Six. But as I wrote in last weeks article:
The Canadiens are playing a tighter defensive system to shelter the youngster at the expense of the offense. The powerplay has been rendered irrelevant by the Rangers penalty-killing scheme and the ignorance of Michel Therrien to adapt has rendered the man-advantage useless. The Rangers are the best shot-blocking team in the NHL and the Canadiens continue to run the power-play through the point. Subban and Markov have not been able to get open for clean shots and most of their attempts have been blocked. The Canadiens should be trying to set up down low and have one of their defenders pinch into the slot for a similar shot, or continually cycle players around. Keeping P.K. Subban stationary at the point to hammer pucks at the Rangers shin guards is the hockey equivalent of trying to hammer a square peg into a round hole. Adapt, Therrien.
Ultimately, Michel Therrien did not adapt his offense to counter the Rangers defensive schemes. He went back to playing the dump-and-chase style that did not serve the team well during the regular season. The Rangers would have a man on the boards to block the dump-ins or often were the stronger players on the back end and recovered the puck in the corner and in turn created offense breakouts of their own. For as well as he matched lines and created good strategies in the first two rounds, he failed to capitalize on opportunities against the Rangers. Alain Vigneault had his Rangers better prepared to shutdown the Canadiens attack. Whether Therrien would have adapted his game plan better if Carey Price was healthy in goal is unknown and ultimately irrelevant.

- Thomas Vanek did not help his free agent stock this post-season. Vanek finished up the playoffs as a member of the fourth line while continuing to see power-play time. Overall, he averaged only 14:53 of ice time; a number strengthened by his top-line minutes in the first two rounds. In 17 playoff games, Vanek contributed 5 goals and 5 assists. Four of those goals came in a pair of two-goal games against Boston. Vanek often looked lost against the Rangers and often displayed a lack of intensity and effort. Vanek battled hard in Game Six but that was it. The sniper also failed to shoot the puck on goal when the opportunity presented itself, preferring to pass to teammates who were either not expecting it or covered. After the series, Vanek attributed his playoff performance to the inability to find chemistry with his new linemates after he was removed from the Pacioretty-Desharnais line and not to injury or lack of effort. While the honesty is commendable, a superstar in the league should be able to create offense and make their linemates better. Vanek turned down a $50 million dollar extension from the New York Islanders earlier this year and is still the biggest name available on the market. But his inability to contribute when the stakes are at their highest might be enough to make Minnesota other teams pause about handing out the max-length contract the 30-year old is looking for.

- P.K. Subban is one player who certainly helped his stock this post-season. Subban was the best player on the ice on a nightly basis for the Canadiens. Subban led the team with a 27:26 in ice time throughout the playoffs and led the team with 5 goals, 9 assists in 17 playoff games. Subban has 10 goals and 30 points in 43 career playoff games and is one player who raises his game substantially when the stakes are high. Since signing his bridge contract - which expires this off-season - Subban won the Norris Trophy as the leagues best defender during the strike-shortened 2012/13 season and this year had a career-best 53 points. He experienced on growing pains and ended up benched or in Michel Therrien's doghouse a few times throughout the season and his shooting percentage was down this season. At times it looked like Subban should be clashing with Therrien over how he was being handled but always maintained a smile and positive energy as well as a level of humbleness that showed a level of maturity. Being the extra defender at the Olympics in Sochi was tough, but he handled it well and was proud to represent the country even if his role was more of cheerleader than scoring leader. This side of Subban certainly goes against the brash and cocky persona the media has labelled him with.

On the ice, teams keyed on Subban as the season wore on and the Canadiens needed to do a better job utilizing their asset. The Nashville Predators' Shea Weber has a very similar style to Subban as both have rockets from the point and both are right handed. The Predators did not boast the strongest power-play in the NHL, but Weber had 23 goals, including 12 on the man-advantage. They cycle their players around a lot and manage to get Weber open in various spots on the ice and in turn generate more scoring opportunities. As was evidenced against the Rangers, the Canadiens needed to adapt their power-play strategy as keeping Subban relatively stationary at the point is not going to work anymore.

Subban had an incredible playoffs and will certainly be receiving a huge payday this summer. As a restricted free agent, Subban does not have the leverage to go any place he chooses and there will not be a bidding war for his services like there will be for Thomas Vanek. However, general managers are not shy to give offer sheets to players of Subban's ilk. Shea Weber was signed to a huge offer sheet by the Philadelphia Flyers that Nashville matched and last season Avalanche forward Ryan O'Reilly signed one with the Calgary Flames that Colorado matched. If Marc Bergevin does not sign Subban to a contract close to his terms, the terms may be set for him by another NHL club. With lesser players making big money (Dion Phaneuf earns $7 million per year in Toronto) the price for P.K. will be high and deservedly so. The future captain (in my opinion) of the Canadiens wants to end his career in Montreal and will probably sign an 8-year deal worth around $60-64 million dollars.

With the season being over and the news surrounding the Habs begins to dwindle throughout the summer months, Monday Musings will continue to provide you with links and insight into developments that happen, including the NHL draft, free agency and player news and rumours. Thank you for reading this season, it was an enjoyable one. The Canadiens are just a few pieces short of their end-goal: A trip to the Stanley Cup.

Enjoy your summer, Habs Addicts!

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Nick Malofy is a transplanted Montrealer, currently living in evil LeafLand. He is a contributor here at HabsAddict.com and give him a follow, as he can often be found rambling on Twitter.

Past Monday Musings 

Monday, May 26, 2014

Monday Musings: Habs Need To Dig Deep

Greetings Habs Addicts,

Monday Musings is back after a two week hiatus where it was replaced by a recap of the Boston series as well as a preview of the New York Rangers series.

It looks like the Eastern Conference Final will have to go seven games this year for the Montreal Canadiens to win it. The New York Rangers currently have a stranglehold on the series 3-1. But as we have already seen in the playoffs this year, leading a series 3-1 is no sure sign of victory. Last round, the Pittsburgh Penguins had a 3-1 series lead against these very same Rangers, only to drop the final three games and lose. In the West, the Kings were down 3-0 to the San Jose Sharks in the opening round before rallying back to win the final four games.

The Habs are going to have to dig deep if they want to come back and win this series. After all their regular season dominance over the Rangers the past two years, this Rangers squad is challenging Montreal with tremendous speed through the zones and puck possession down low. For as well as Dustin Tokarski has played, losing Carey Price early in the series has been a difference maker in both the confidence level of the Canadiens as well as their style of play. The Canadiens are playing a tighter defensive system to shelter the youngster at the expense of the offense. The powerplay has been rendered irrelevant by the Rangers penalty-killing scheme and the ignorance of Michel Therrien to adapt has rendered the man-advantage useless. The Rangers are the best shot-blocking team in the NHL and the Canadiens continue to run the power-play through the point. Subban and Markov have not been able to get open for clean shots and most of their attempts have been blocked. The Canadiens should be trying to set up down low and have one of their defenders pinch into the slot for a similar shot, or continually cycle players around. Keep P.K. Subban stationary at the point to hammer pucks at the Rangers shin guards is the hockey equivalent of trying to hammer a square peg into a round hole. Adapt, Therrien.
Dustin Tokarski makes a pad save.
Photo Credit: NationalPost.com

Some musings from the series so far:

- Thomas Vanek has been largely invisible for long stretches so far in the playoffs. The soon-to-be free agent sniper has not been playing a very inspired game this post-season. Through 14 games, he has 5 goals and 9 points with 3 of those goals coming on the power-play. In this round, Vanek has been held to only 1 assist through four games and has relegated to the fourth line. Michel Therrien and the team still have faith in Vanek to produce, but for a guy who is expected to command an eight-year/$60 million contract this off-season (Minnesota has been the rumoured destination all season long), his lack of production and effort on this big stage could be costing him money. Minnesota will free up cap room with the underperforming Dany Heatley coming off the books at season's end, do they want to risk taking on a potential Heatley 2.0 by giving a max deal to Vanek? Considering the money they owe Zach Parise and Ryan Suter and cash-flow being an issue already for the Wild, do they even want Vanek or would they try to sign a similarly skilled Matt Moulson who they traded for at the deadline. Only time will tell on that front. Meanwhile, Vanek is losing the fanbase and the media in Montreal. The Canadiens need him to put forth an effort. Max Pacioretty has struggled this post-season as well, but has been contributing hits, killing penalties and when he has scored, it has won games. Big difference in the effort level for a player with a similar stat line to Vanek. David Desharnais has struggled offensively as well, but has been putting forth tremendous effort and often times has been the best player on the ice. Its easy to forgive these two players because they are competing hard and contributing. Vanek is floating around and often looks lost without the puck. He is talented enough to take over a game (two two-goal games in the Boston series) but has yet to truly do so.

- With the news that Carey Price was lost for the series with a lower-body injury, the Canadiens turned to youngster Dustin Tokarski over veteran back-up Peter Budaj. The youngster has a big-game pedigree, having backstopped teams to a Memorial Cup championship and World Junior Hockey Championships as well as a Calder Cup win in the AHL. While none of this equates to the NHL level, pressure games are pressure games. Peter Budaj has been solid, but unspectacular as a backup to Price and has struggled when forced to shoulder the load for multiple games in a row. Michel Therrien felt there was more potential upside to starting the NHL-inexperienced kid over the veteran who has 8 career playoff wins in his 13 year career. The Anaheim Ducks turned to rookie John Gibson against the Los Angeles Kings over starter Jonas Hiller and nearly stole the series.

Tokarski had a solid debut in a 3-1 loss in Game 2, stopping 27 of 30 shots. Two of the goals went in off defenders. Game 3 was a different story as Tokarski stood on his head, stopping 35 of 37 shots in a 3-2 overtime win. The gamble was starting to pay off for Therrien. Last night was different, however. Tokarski stopped 26 of 29 shots in the 3-2 overtime loss. This loss cemented a 3-1 series lead for the Rangers. Most notably, the Rangers began to exploit the 5'11'' netminders tendency to go down early and give away the top part of the net. Both Derrick Brassard and Martin St. Louis in overtime had clear breakaways and both times opted to wire the puck top shelf. Tokarski had no chance to make the save on either attempt. This is the same weakness the Bruins thought they could exploit on Carey Price. If the Bruins thought they could capitalize by shooting high on a 6'4" goalie, no doubt the Rangers will be taking liberties on a 5'11" goaltender playing a similar style of game. And if the Canadiens keep allowing them clear breaks at Tokarski, Game 5 could be ugly.

Truth be told, the Price injury forced the Canadiens' hand with Tokarski. By adding him to the active roster for the playoffs instead of being one of the so-called "Black Aces" he would be on the 23-man roster at season's end. As such, heading into next season they would be unable to send him back down to Hamilton without him first clearing waivers based on his age/experience level at the professional level. He will never clear waivers, especially after performing as well as he has. As such, the future is now for the Canadiens and Tokarski is going to be the back-up goalie next season. Ever the consummate professional, Peter Budaj has continued to support the youngster and has not displayed any outward disappointment he may have over not being given the nod. Budaj will be dealt this summer and continue to thrive in a back-up role for another team.

- The veteran scorers have not been contributing any offense this round. On defence, Andrei Markov and Alexei Emelin have been exposed by the Rangers. Markov has been disappointing thus far in the playoffs, failing to contribute much in the way of offense after another typically sound regular season. Markov and Emelin have a combined 1 goal, 9 points in 15 games and each have a -4 rating. The Rangers have been beating the two in one-on-one races for pucks. Up front, Thomas Plekanec is a team-worst -7 while contributing only 3 goals, 8 points in 15 games. Our best shut-down centre has not shut down anyone very effectively. Secondary scoring has been an issue after being the strength of the Tampa series.

  • Thomas Plekanec: 1 goal in last 10 games (vs Bruins, Game 3).
  • Rene Bourque: 1 goal in last 10 games (vs Rangers, Game 1)
  • Brian Gionta: 1 goal in 15 games (vs Tampa, Game 1)
  • David Desharnais: 1 goal in 15 games (vs Tampa, Game 2)
  • Brendan Gallagher: 1 goal in last 10 games (vs Boston, Game 5)
The Canadiens have had a hard to time putting pucks past Henrik Lundqvist and the lack of offensive contribution from experienced veterans has contributed to this. Brian Gionta was expected to be a contributor in this series based on his experience playing the Rangers from his days with the New Jersey Devils. This has not occurred. Rene Bourque was a force for the entire Tampa series after a disappointing regular season but while the effort level has been there, the production has ceased. 

Brandon Prust's hit on Derek Stepan
Photo Credit: Modelsportsfan.com
- Michel Therrien needs to make some changes to his game plan. As touched on earlier in the article, the Habs have been forced to play a slightly tighter defensive scheme to shelter the young goalie in a way they do not need to do with Carey Price. Overall, Therrien has been outcoached by Alain Vigneault throughout the series and while he has made some big, risky decisions - inserting Nathan Beaulieu into the line-up against Boston; starting Tokarski in goal over Budaj - his in-game management has regressed as the rounds move on. His insistence of relying on dumping the puck off the boards as well as funnelling the offense through the point has allowed the patient Rangers to continually block shots and dump-ins along the boards while generating turnovers. This has in turn lead to fast breaks and scoring chances against. With Brandon Prust out of the lineup after being suspended two games for a late, violent hit that broke the jaw of the Rangers' Derek Stepan, the physical game that the Canadiens displayed against the Bruins has been largely invisible against the speedier Rangers. In Game 4, the Canadiens had only 18 hits which was essentially one period's worth against the Bruins. Therrien needs to change his game plan because after four games, he has not found any sustained offense, even when there has been sustained pressure.  

The pivotal Game 5 will be played on Tuesday in Montreal. Therrien needs to adapt and the Canadiens need to playing a strong 60-minutes or else next week's Monday Musings will be a season recap. 

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Nick Malofy is a transplanted Montrealer, currently living in evil LeafLand. He is a contributor here at HabsAddict.com and give him a follow, as he can often be found rambling on Twitter.

Past Monday Musings 

Friday, May 16, 2014

Keep Calm & Carey On To Face The Rangers: Third Round Preview

Greetings Habs Addicts!

It feels like just yesterday we were sitting back and saying "Bye Bye, Bruins!" We were spending the day basking in the glory of knocking out the big, bad Bostonians. Most likely we were sporting some sort of Habs paraphernalia to school or work; just absolutely loving life.

Today we look forward to the next challenge that awaits us this coming Saturday afternoon at the Bell Centre: The New York Rangers and the Eastern Conference Finals.

The Habs have been in the Eastern Conference Finals in recent memory: Jaroslav Halak and the magical 2010 playoff run. That year the 8th seeded Habs stunned the President's Trophy winning Washington Capitals in seven games in the first round. In the second round, they proceeded to knock off Sidney Crosby and the 4th seeded - and defending Stanley Cup Champion - Pittsburgh Penguins in another hard-fought seven game series. The Eastern finals was where the magic ended. The Philadelphia Flyers made short work of the Habs, winning the series in five games before being knocked down in six games by the Chicago Blackhawks in the Stanley Cup final.
Carey Price & Henrik Lundqvist
Photo Credit: sportsinteraction.com

This year is different. This year the Canadiens are not the 8th seeded underdog. The Canadiens had the third best record in the Eastern Conference (tied in points with Tampa). They just finished defeating the President's Trophy winning Boston Bruins; the league's best regular season team and a perennial playoff favorite. During the regular season, the Rangers and Habs played 3 extremely close games. All three games were ended in shutouts, two in favor of Montreal (1-0, 2-0); one for the Rangers (1-0). Statistically, a total of four goals were scored in the three games combined. During the shortened 2013 season, the Habs and Rangers met three times. The results: Montreal 3, Rangers 1; Montreal 3, Rangers 0; and Montreal 3, Rangers 0. The New York Rangers have scored two goals against the Montreal Canadiens in 6 match-ups over the past two seasons. They have been shutout two times. They have one win to show for it, a 1-0 shutout of their own by backup goaltender Cam Talbot this year.

Carey Price has simply owned the New York Rangers over the past two years with a 4-1 with three shutouts against the New York Rangers. He has allowed only two goals on 151 shots for a 0.40 goals-against average (GAA) and a .987 save percentage (Save %). For his career, Price sports an 8-5-1 record with a 2.04 GAA and a .934 Save % with 5 shutouts in 15 career games.

Henrik Lundqvist has not had quite that same success against the Montreal Canadiens. In 28 career games, King Henrik has a 13-1-2 record with a 2.85 GAA and a .897 Save % and one shutout. In Montreal, Lundqvist has a 4-5-2 record along with a 3.87 GAA and .876 Save % and has not played in a game at the Bell Centre since January of the 2011/12 NHL season.

Going into the Boston series, Carey Price had better career numbers against the Bruins than Tuukka Rask did against Montreal. The way the series played out, it was evident that sometimes a goaltender does not match up well against certain teams. Goalies are interesting psychological specimen. Whether or not their past performances against the respective team played on their minds, the series resulted with Price looking stellar and confident while Rask was often shaky. Needless to say, the numbers heading into this series certainly favor Carey Price over Henrik Lundqvist in the rematch of Sochi Olympic Gold Medal Goaltenders. That was also a game won by Carey Price.

Teams At A Glance

Montreal finished 9th overall (4th in the East) in the NHL with 100 points on the season, tied with the Los Angeles Kings. The Canadiens were stingy in their own right, allowing only 204 goals against; 6th best in the league. Montreal's even strength offense was not good this year. Overall, the Habs scored only 215 goals which was only good enough to rank them 21st in the league. Montreal made quick work of the favoured Tampa Bay Lightning, sweeping the first round series 4-0. The Boston Bruins were a far more formidable challenge but the Habs prevailed winning the second-round series in seven games. 

The New York Rangers finished the year with a record of 45-31-6, good enough for 96 points and placing them 12th overall in the NHL (5th in the East). The Rangers defensively were stingier than the Canadiens, allowing only 193 goals against which was 4th best in the league. Offensively, the Rangers were slightly better than the Canadiens with 218 goals scored which places them 18th overall in the NHL. The Rangers faced the Philadelphia Flyers at home for the first round of the playoffs, alternating wins and losses before finally ending the series in seven games. In the second round, the Rangers rallied back from a 3-1 series deficit to stun the Pittsburgh Penguins in seven games. The Rangers enter this round of the playoffs having played three more games than Montreal. 

Previewing Round Three

- Martin St. Louis lost his mother last week suddenly. He flew home to Montreal to be with his family and promptly returned to the lineup in time for Game 5, which the Rangers rallied to win 5-1. They carried this momentum over through Game 6 and 7 to stun the Penguins. Whether or not this emotion carries over to this series is hard to assess. It will certainly be emotional for the Laval native playing in his hometown to open the series. St. Louis had only 1 goal and 8 points in 19 games after being acquired by the Rangers from Tampa Bay at the trade deadline for Ryan Callahan. In the playoffs, St. Louis has reunited with former Tampa teammate Brad Richards to put up eight and nine points respectively in 14 games.

- P.K Subban is coming off a series to remember against the Boston Bruins. Subban has come into his own these playoffs and is back playing at the level that won him the Norris Trophy last season. He has been extremely responsible in his own end and has played a physical game as well. Subban leads the Canadiens in scoring this post-season with four goals and 12 points in 11 games played. Subban had four goals and seven points in the Boston series.

- This series marks the return of former first-round draft choice Ryan McDonagh to Montreal. Habs fans will remember that McDonagh was involved in the ill-fated Scott Gomez trade and has since blossomed into one of the NHL's top defenders. McDonagh is the Rangers answer to P.K. Subban as he finished the year with 14 goals and 44 points in 77 games. While Subban is one of the leagues best power-play quarterbacks, McDonagh scored more short-handed goals (3) than power-play goals (2) and is arguably the better all-around player when you factor in his penalty-killing abilities. 

- The Rangers top line of Benoit Pouliot - Derek Brassard - Mats Zuccarello had a dominant series against the Penguins. The trio has combined for ten goals and 23 points in the playoffs with three game winning goals between them. The Canadiens top line of Thomas Vanek - David Desharnais - Max Pacioretty has been quiet so far in the post-season, but stepped up in the pivotal games against Boston. For the playoffs, they have combined for nine goals and 20 points with only two game winning goals. Both of them were scored by Pacioretty and both ended up being the series winning goals. Montreal needs this line to outplay their Rangers counterparts at even strength as the Habs trio have five power-play goals between them while the Rangers trio does their damage at even strength with only one power-play goal between them. 

Summary

Offense: The Rangers and Canadiens were two of the weaker offensive teams during the regular season. Both made significant upgrades at the trade deadline with the Rangers acquiring reigning Art Ross Trophy winner Martin St. Louis while the Habs added Thomas Vanek. Vanek performed as expected and teamed up with Max Pacioretty to form a dangerous duo down the stretch while St. Louis found it more difficult to fit in to the Rangers lineup. Both have been average during this playoff run. Montreal has had balanced scoring with Dale Weise, Brendan Gallagher, Rene Bourque and Lars Eller all contributing offensively. The Rangers scoring has come primarily from their top line of Derek Brassard, Benoit Pouliot and Mats Zuccarello with support from St. Louis and Brad Richards. Sniper Rick Nash has been a bust this post season with zero goals and five assists in 14 games but can break out at any time. He is still dangerous even if he has declined over the past couple of seasons in New York.

Edge: Montreal; slightly due to balanced scoring.

Defense: Outside of Ryan McDonagh, the Rangers do not have any other true offensive options. Dan Girardi was the second-highest scoring defender for the Rangers with only five goals and 24 points in 81 games played. While they do not receive much offensive support from the blueline, the Rangers are one of the leagues best shot-blocking teams and players such as Girardi, Mark Staal and Anton Stralman can move the puck. The Canadiens are led by P.K Subban who unlike McDonagh (one goal, three points in 14 games) has increased his scoring output in the post-season. Andrei Markov has been quiet, but is still one of the more dangerous power-play specialists while Mike Weaver has contributed unexpected offense to balance out this shot-blocking and penalty killing. Josh Gorges and Alexei Emelin have been blocking shots and Emelin has been playing extremely physical with seven hits in the Boston Game 7 alone. Nathan Beaulieu entered the lineup and added a puck moving dimension to the third pairing that was lacking with Douglas Murray or Francis Bouillon in the line-up. Michel Therrien has limited the rookie to under ten minutes per game so far, but he has responded with two assists.

Edge: Montreal

Goaltending: Carey Price against Henrik Lundqvist is a battle of the leagues top goaltenders and an extended rematch of this past years Sochi Olympic gold-medal game. Team Canada and Price defeated Team Sweden and Lundvist and so far this season, Price has allowed only two goals in five elimination-game scenarios (three at the Olympics, two against Boston). Price has a better career record against the Rangers where King Henrik has struggled against the Canadiens, especially in Montreal. A hot goaltender can steal a series and both goalies got hot at the right time. Price stole one from Boston and Lundqvist stole the series from Pittsburgh.

Edge: Even

Coaching: Alain Vigneault has the Rangers playing solid hockey right now. Vigneault is no stranger to the post-season or the atmosphere of the Bell Centre and he will have his team prepared. The Rangers are a very defensive minded team, not as physical as the Bruins but will battle for pucks in the corner. He has some big bodies in Brian Boyle, Benoit Pouliot and Chris Kreider to win puck battles in the corners and get to the front of the net, much like the Bruins did with Lucic and Iginla. Michel Therrien has coached incredibly well this post-season and has made some question decisions and taken some gambles that paid off. Inserting Murray to the line-up probably will not happen again as Nathan Beaulieu should remain on the blue line. Both coaches have made it to the Stanley Cup finals; neither has won.

Edge: Even

Prediction: Both of these teams match up pretty evenly. They were pretty average offensively all season long. Defensively, both are extremely adept at killing penalties. The Rangers will need to find an answer for P.K. Subban and Max Pacioretty seems to be finding his scoring touch. When Pacioretty gets hot, it will be bad news for the Rangers as him and Thomas Vanek can take over a game. Defensively, the Canadiens are receiving far more offensive production from their blue line and that will be a difference. Ultimately, this series will come down to the battle of the goaltenders again. Carey Price shines against the Rangers and will continue to prove he's the best goaltender in the world and the Habs win the series in six games.

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Nick Malofy is a transplanted Montrealer, currently living in evil LeafLand. He is a contributor here at HabsAddict.com and give him a follow, as he can often be found rambling on Twitter.