Sunday, November 14, 2010

Andrei Markov: What Does the Future Hold?

by Tyg

After tearing an ACL in last season’s playoffs, Andrei Markov finally returned to the Canadiens' lineup a scant seven games ago. Last night versus the Carolina Hurricanes, the Habs best defenseman once again went down to the ice in pain with his gloves flying off, pounding the sideboards in frustration.

I can only sympathize. Like him and many other Habs fans I’m feeling very frustrated this morning.

Markov has been down this road very recently twice before. He knows by now when his injuries are serious. Like me, he has to be wondering what this means for his future with the Montreal Canadiens.

Next summer Markov will be an unrestricted free agent. His agent has said that the Canadiens wanted to wait a bit before opening talks, and I’m pretty sure that after last night, talks between the veteran blueliner and Pierre Gauthier are going to the wire.

Markov may or may not be “accident prone”, but there’s really no arguing that he’s had some terrible luck the past two seasons when it comes to his health.

A fluke skate incident at the beginning of last season kept him out until December. Upon his return he played 45 games before going down with the torn ACL. Last night’s injury was simply more of the same bad luck.

It's really gotten to the point where I pretty much expect him to sustain another major injury.

Markov has always been one of my favorite Habs. He’s a solid hard worker blessed with fine talent and some great hockey sense. But I’m no longer convinced he’s going to make or break this team.

Last season the stats without Markov in the lineup were pretty ugly. This season, the Habs managed to win seven games without him, so I’m no longer convinced that his absence will necessarily hamstring the Habs.

The Canadiens are the epitome of a "team" now, clearly playing as a cohesive unit, and it is a formidable strength that many pundits overlooked when assessing this roster. They pick up each other’s slack, and they battle through the tougher games and opponents together.

Had Markov stayed healthy I think it’s pretty obvious that the Canadiens would have given him a raise. He's also likely to have taken a bit of a discount in order to stay with this organization in return for some long-term job security.

Now all bets are off.

If nothing else, this latest injury will likely hurt his contract value when it comes to negotiations. Montreal has hardly gotten its money’s worth out of this player last season, and it appears they won’t be getting it again this year.

Were I General Manager Pierre Gauthier, I would be reluctant to sign Markov to a long-term deal of any kind. He’s the wrong side of 30, and recurring knee-injuries are often tricky.

There’s definitely still a market to trade Markov, regardless of the injury. Veteran puck-moving defensemen are always in high demand, and even if he’s on the IR for the rest of the season Gauthier could probably find a buyer willing to gamble and part with a gem or two in return.

The problem is that the Habs really have no one in the system to do what Markov does, for the money they can afford to spend. PK Subban is likely to pick up some of the slack, but he’s still a rookie and cannot be expected to anchor this team’s D corp in his first full season.

The best the Habs can hope for is that this injury doesn't mean another half-season or more without Markov. If it is another disaster like that, the Canadiens will either have to hold the fort until his return or make another roster move.

If I’m Gauthier, I’m hoping for a short-term, very affordable deal where Markov stays healthy. Otherwise I’d try for a trade or let him walk and take my chances with the rest of the UFA market.

Regardless, I think any notion of a long-term cap friendly hit for Andrei Markov and the Canadiens is now unlikely. A player that was once a solid investment for the Habs is suddenly turning into a nightmare for the team’s blueline.

Of course this is all speculation right now. RDS is reporting that sources have stated Markov has re-injured his right knee, and may be out for three months. The Canadiens are saying nothing, still awaiting further test results.

But as a fan, that’s what I do. I speculate. And in the morning’s cold light of day, I really don’t like any of the options I currently see on the table for the Habs and Andrei Markov.

(Photo by Richard Wolowicz/Getty Images North America)

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Tyg used to frequent the old Forum during her early childhood when her father was a corporate season ticket holder, where she fell in love with Larry Robinson, so her lifelong obsession with the Habs is entirely his fault.

1 comments:

Tyg

Great read as always. If a way this injury to Markov is a major blessing.

Markov is coming off back to back knee surgeries which will ultimately decrease his value on the open market. Perhaps a team is willing to take a chance on him but most teams will not.

A year ago locking this blueliner up would have set us back perhaps $6-7 million per year where as now I am guessing we'll see something in the $4.0-5.0 per season.

Secondly when I take a quick glance around the league and look at some up coming UFA defensemen I notice that there are quite a few guys on the market.

Sure this year the list lacks a guy like a J-BO or a Mike Green but none the less the list contains some really good NHLers.

Names like Erhoff, Bieksa, Kaberle, McCabe, Jovonowski, Wieniewski, Martinek, Phillips, and many more.

In a hypothetical world let's assume that Markov is not retained. What this means is that we'd have his $5.75 million, Hamrlik's $5.5 million and Gill's $2.25 million all coming off the books at one time. Thats $13.5 million to spend on 3 guys.

I know Gorges is due for about a $1.0-1.5 million pay hike and I am willing to bet that Gill remains a Hab for about $2.0 a season but this would still leave us with $10 million to spend on 2 guys.

Our D-line up can very easily go from a soft group to a hard nosed group who can retain their PP excellence and ultimately save this team millions.

Don't get me wrong I would love to see a healthy Markov back but his injury comes at a time where the team faces many options and this can only be a positive.

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