Carey Price is the face of the franchise. He is one of youngest goaltenders to reach the 100 win mark. He is young, confident, skilled and, arguably, among the top five goaltenders in the league.
He led the league in wins in 2011, was again among the top ten in save percentage and was the primary reason for the team making the playoffs.
As a matter of fact, the Montreal Canadiens, like most teams, heavily rely on their netminder. Essentially, the Habs will only go as far as the man between the pipes will take them.
As the expression goes: “show me a great goaltender and I’ll show you a great coach”.
The Pending Contract
This season will see Price's current deal—which pays him an average annual salary of $2.75 million—come to an end. With limited cap space and a plethora of other key components all in need of contracts, should fans be worried about the future of this budding star?
I guess the answer to this question depends on whether you're a “the glass is half full or half empty” type of guy.
Glass Half Empty: Over six million dollars per season
Here is a quick glance at the top-10 highest paid goaltenders in the NHL for 2011-12. This list does not even include the Pekka Rinne deal, which is scheduled to kick in at the start of the 2012-13 season.
After taking a look at the above list, ask yourself: where does Price fit in?
One can make an argument that Price is among the elite goaltenders in the NHL and is better than at least half of the names on that list. Does this equate to a deal upwards of six million dollars per year? Will the organization need to lower the cap hit by offering a longer, seven to ten-year deal?
Price is certainly going to cost the team richly. And they best pay up, otherwise, the Habs could run the risk of allowing another organization to intervene with an RFA contract offer.
Glass Half Full : Three to four million dollars per season
The majority of the contracts posted above will have absolutely no impact on the contracts talks with Price.
He is surely not going to sign a new contract for the same amount he is making now. But, by the same token, he will not be making Rinne money either.
At least not yet.
Obviously, Price is among the top goaltenders in the league. Conversely, he is also one of the youngest in this league and his rights will still be owned by the Canadiens for a few years.
As such, you truly cannot accurately compare players who have signed contracts either as UFAs or pending UFAs to players like Price, whose rights are still owned by their respective teams.
Price may be a reliable and talented netminder, but his restricted status completely changes his comparables:
One could argue that the contracts of Cam Ward and Niklas Backstrom are valuable benchmarks for Price. However, the majority of goaltenders with RFA status have not come close to the sums that both Ward and Backstrom obtained. Furthermore, Ward possesses two important items not yet in Price's mantle: A Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe trophy.
When All is Said and Done...
There is a policy within the Canadiens organization not to negotiate contracts mid-season. In life, though, exceptions are sometimes necessary.
Even if an opposing team were to present an offer sheet, there is no way that Pierre Gauthier would even consider not matching it. With that said, there is absolutely no excuse for negotiations to even reach that point.
The Habs possess one of the best young goaltenders in the league, own his rights and can negotiate with him with no extraneous interference. Lock the kid up now.
After looking at more than half the goaltenders in this league at different ends of the pay scale, it’s simply a matter of determining the proper price—no pun intended.
It will be up to Gauthier to come up with a number that accurately reflects Price’s worth without crippling the organization going forward.
Rick DiPietro is a classic example of a long contract hampering an organization. But even deals for seeming franchise players like Roberto Luongo can become burdensome.
At the end of the day, it comes down to two options: the Canadiens sign their franchise player to a two-to-three year deal or secure his services for many years to come?
If the answer is a short term deal then you offer Price a simple raise, in the $3.3 to $3.75 million per season range. It’s a number that both the organization and Price should be happy with leading into his unrestricted status.
However, that kind of deal should not be considered satisfactory.
It is time for the organization to show that they are serious. Prove to this kid that he is the face of the franchise and lock him up with for the long-term with a seven-year contract.
Signing him to a seven-year deal that averages out to around $5.2 million per season would be about right.
That would mean overpaying for the first three seasons and perhaps underpaying for the final four. Based on the current salary landscape, this seems like a number that could appease both parties.
Cap flexibility for the team. Job and financial security for the player. That would surely be a win-win situation.
After Price, it will quickly become time to sort out the impending contracts of P.K Subban and Josh Gorges.
So there is no sense letting this key negotiation carry on.
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Bryan is a Marketer by day, writer for HabsAddict.com by night and full time fan of the game. Follow me on twitter @BryanWilley78 but don't bother looking for me on Facebook, I'm just too old for that now!
(Photo by Paul Bereswill/Getty Images North America)
5 comments:
Good stuff Bryan!
I agree that Rinne is not a direct comparable since he got UFA money. I think Price at around $6-6.5 million per season, on a long-term deal, is about the size of it.
The interesting thing is that Price's agent already contacted Gauthier to tell him they want the deal done during the season, and the sooner the better.
They absolutely do not want to wait till the offseason...
As such, the next few months could be very interesting. Here's hoping Gauthier gets on that contract fast...and Gorges too while he's at it, since that will also be a tough one given Gorges strong play so far.
Let me play Devil's advocate here. The idea of signing Price to a longer-deal is risky on two fronts.
Players like DiPietro and Lunongo have proven to be crippling to their team's due to longer contracts. While Price does not seemed destined to share their fate, things can change over a long-term deal.
Furthermore, with a new CBA upcoming, it might be hard to structure a deal in a way that will be optimal under the new agreement. Given that, perhaps management's position of waiting until the offseason has some wisdom here?
Like I said, playing Devil's advocate though. Not that I disagree with Bryan's main point.
I culled some stats for regularly playing goalies, aged 28 and younger. Career regular-season save %, Age, Salary. Obviously, some of these have not proven themselves as durable or #1 as Price has, but Price's Win-Loss record ain't so hot. His career save % is just over avg for this group. If anything, there is a trend away from long-term contracts and huge salaries for goalies. Most likely, he's looking at a salary similar to Niemi or Halak. Say, $3.75M. Possibly less. I predict 4-yr contract, avg $3.75-$4M, not announced until the end of the season. I wish Habs had never let Huet go.
Avg Age Salary
Howard 0.919 27 2.3
Price 0.916 23 2.8
Crawford 0.912 26 2.7
Quick 0.915 25 1.8
Elliott 0.905 26 0.6
Niemi 0.917 28 3.8
Varlamov 0.914 23 2.8
Pavelec 0.907 24 1.2
Enroth 0.916 23 0.7
Bernier 0.908 23 1.3
Harding 0.918 27 0.8
Schneider 0.922 25 0.9
Bobrovsky 0.914 23 1.8
Rask 0.925 24 1.3
Halak 0.915 26 3.8
Dubnyk 0.906 25 0.8
Neuvirth 0.909 23 1.2
Mason 0.904 23 2.9
Average 0.913 24.7 1.9
This whole article is pointless. There is NOTHING to be worried about. Carey Price is an RFA. The Habs are in control. Only stupid managers and stupid business people would commit themselves to risk like that when they don't need to.
Don't worry about Price, he is still very young. Expect a four year deal worth $18-20 million ($3.5-$4.0 million/year).
He'll get his big long-term deal when he's 27-28 years-old.
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