The 25-year-old left winger, who is one the most serious candidates to become the team's next captain, is entering his prime and is ready to breakout offensively. Two years ago, during the season shortened by the lockout, he potted 15 goals and added 24 assists for a total of 39 points in 44 contests, which would have resulted in a 69-point season over a full 82-game calendar.
Last season, he finished only behind Alexander Ovechkin (51 goals in 78 games) in goals per game with a 0.534 goals per game played. If he had not miss three weeks with a left hamstring strain in late October/early November, Max Pax would have scored a prorated 44 goals in 2013-14.
Add the struggles of his friend and centerman David Desharnais to the mix and the 50-goal barrier could have been very well within reach of the power forward. After his first 12 games, Pacioretty had only potted 2 goals and 2 assists for a mere 4 points. This means that from November 19th to the end of the season, the native of New Canaan, Connecticut, recorded 37 goals and 19 assists for 56 points in only 61 games.
If we prorate this goal-scoring production over a full season we get exactly 50 goals for Pacioretty, which indicates us that it is fairly reasonable to predict the first 50-goal campaign for a Habs player since Stéphane Richard potted 51 goals back in 1989-90, which is 25 years ago!
With the arrival of Pierre-Alexandre Parenteau and the maturation of Brendan Gallagher, the David Desharnais-Max Pacioretty duo will finally be able to rely on either one of these two players to play alongside them on the team's first line.
The arrival of Manny Mahlotra will, who will take most of the defensive zone face-offs will also allow head coach Michel Therrien to start his two best lines even more in the offensive zone. Last season, Max Pacioretty started 53.6% of his shifts in the offensive zone, a number that could easily increase to 55% this season, which would allow him and his line-mates to get even more scoring chances.
Over his career, Pacioretty is scoring at a 11.1% pace, which is slightly lower than last year's 14.4%. Still, reaching the 50-goal mark is quite a feat when you consider than most sniper score about 15% of the time. Alex Ovechkin scores on 12.3% of his shot attempts over his illustrious career, but he shots from everywhere! As for Steven Stamkos, he is a true goal scorer and he is scoring on 17.5% of his shots attempts.
If you assume Max Pax scores on 15% of his shots, he will need to stay healthy and shoot more than 333 times on net to reach the 50-goal plateau. While it is quite possible to reach, it's no small feat to accomplish!
Finally, do you think Pacioretty will finally hit the 50-goal mark?
If so, will he reach the 80-point mark in the process?
Finally, who should play with DD and Max? Parenteau or Gallagher?
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No Foolin' Fred Poulin
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2 comments:
I'm just going to say it, no.
50 goal scorers usually are surrounded by players with real talent. In order for a guy like Leclair to score 50, he needed to have a Lindros. Hull needed a Janey or Oates, Neely needed Janey, Ovechkin needs Backstrom, Stamkos needs St-Louis.
The habs simply don't have enough top end talent for that to happen. The team has 3 balanced lines with 8 players capable of putting up 15-25 goals and one capable of 35-40 which is a great nucleus.
For PAtch to put up 50 though then first he has to learn to play with other guys not named Desharnais and Galchenyuk needs to become a Malkin-esque center.
Right now that simply is not in the cards.
To add to what Bryan said, he also went on an absolute tear after the arrival of Vanek, who is no longer with the club. That will also factor into things.
But no reason to believe another 35-40 goals is not in the cards if he can play 75+ games.
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