Grand Theft Subban

Habs fans rejoice as the organization announced yesterday evening they had re-signed restricted free agent (RFA) P.K. Subban to a two-year deal worth $2 million in year 1 (prorated) and $3.75 million in year 2 for an average annual value (AAV) of $2.875 million. The flashy defenseman finally caved in and accepted a short-term deal after asking for a multi-year contract since he became a RFA last July. Marc Bergevin’s first real test as the team’s new general manager prove that he is ready to rise to the challenge and face the music in a demanding Montreal market.

Subban, who was looking for a contract similar to the five-year contract worth $26.25 million signed by RFA Jamie Benn with the Dallas Stars, settled for a shorter term in order to play this season. To alleviate Subban’s “pain”, Bergevin gave him a nice salary increase in the second year of this bridge contract. This agreement is pretty similar to the two-year pact that Michael Del Zotto signed with the New York Rangers two weeks ago for which MDZ will earn $2.2 million in year 1 and $2.9 million in year 2 for an AAV of $2.55 million compared to Subban’s AAV of $2.875 million.

The Canadiens have a reputation to sign they star players to transition contracts before signing them long term contrary to other teams such as the Flyers and the Oilers who are adept at throwing a pile of money at their star players to retain their services for ages. Max Pacioretty and Carey Price signed two-year deals before hitting the jackpot, both agreeing to six-year pacts worth $27 million and $39 million, respectively.

“I’m happy to be at this point and I’m looking forward to reintegrating with the team and helping them win,” Subban said on a conference call. “It was about getting a deal done that was fair to both sides.”

Now that Subban is under contract at a very affordable price, he needs to regain his teammates’ respect and trust after missing training camp and the first few games of the season. The 23 year-old rearguard is slated to rejoin the Canadiens on Wednesday and is expected to make his season debut when Montreal hosts the Buffalo Sabres at Bell Centre.

After Subban’s signing and Scott Gomez's buy-out, the Canadiens now have $3,314,041 under the salary cap to make a transaction before the trade deadline should Bergevin believes the team needs help in anticipation of the playoffs.

“I really didn’t want to become a distraction and I think that’s why this is the right thing,” Subban added. “The longer this went on, the bigger a distraction it became.”

With Subban under contract, the team now has eight defensemen on a one-way deal, which likely means one of them is on his way out, the most likely candidates being Tomas Kaberle and Yannick Weber, who both have been healthy scratch so far this season. Look for the “Subbanator” to draw into the line-up as soon as he has practised with the team and slide alongside last year’s defensive partner Josh Gorges on the Habs’ first defensive pairing.

Defensive pairings with Subban in the line-up:

Josh Gorges – P.K. Subban

Andrei Markov – Alexei Emelin
Francis Bouillon - Raphael Diaz
Extras: Tomas Kaberle and Yannick Weber

It is now time for PK to perform on the ice and to silence his critics off the ice, and it will be in his best interest to do exactly that in order to land the lucrative contract he is expecting to get from the Habs after the 2013-14 season. Subban will still be two years away from unrestricted free agency after the completion of this two-year contract, so the Canadiens must give him a qualifying offer of $3.75 million to keep his rights in 2014 when he will be 25 years old.

With the Canadiens off to a good 4-1 start this season and following the announcement that both rookies, Alex Galchenyuk and Brendan Gallagher, will remain in Montreal this season, there is optimism in the air among Habs fans regarding the NHL shortened season and most of them fairly believe that their favorite team can improve and blossom under the tutelage of new head coach Michael Therrien. Some even believe the team will make it to the spring dance and have an interesting playoff run.

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Will Marc Bergevin Trade PK Subban?

Two games into the 2013 NHL season, the stalemate between the P.K. Subban and the Montreal Canadienscarries on. The negotiation between the parties has been a deadlock from the start for new general manager Marc Bergevin as Subban is looking for a long-term deal with big dollars, whereas the Bleu Blanc Rouge wants a short term pact with smaller dollars.  As a result, the controversial defenseman is still in Toronto away from the team and awaiting to finally sign his second NHL contract with the team that drafted him 43rd overall in the  2007 NHL Entry Draft.

PK Subban is still without a contract (Eric Bolte-US PRESSWIRE)

With the improved play of Raphael Diaz and a healthy Andrei Markov, the team is in no hurry to re-sign the 23-year-old defenseman to a long-term deal that the organization might regret later. Consequently, rumours are swirling in social media circles that the Habs would be better off trading Subban to a team in dire need of a young and talented defenseman in exchange for the big forward the team has been lacking for years.

Will Marc Bergevin have the guts to trade P.K. Subban or will he be patient and sign Subban under his own terms?

Circumstances have changed since last summer, as both parties don’t want to budge on their initial position, and should the Canadiens lose a few games in a row, the pressure of the Montreal media and fans might force him to make a move sooner rather than later. As we all know, Subban is a unique talent, and is part of a very select group of NHL defencemen when you take into account his dynamic offensive skills, his excellent puck-handling and skating abilities.

Subban told the Montreal media that he wants to sign a fair deal and that he is not looking for a humongous deal similar to Drew Doughty’s eight-year deal worth $56 million that he signed prior to last season. The question still remains, how much money is Subban really worth?

Comparable defensemen who recently signed long-term deals:

Cam Fowler, 21, Anaheim Ducks: 2011-12 stats: 5 goals and 24 assists for 29 points in 82 games -> five-year contract with an average value of $4 million

Tyler Myers, 22, Buffalo Sabres: 2011-12 stats: 8 goals and 15 assists for 23 points in 55 games -> seven-year contract with an average value of $5.5 million

Erik Johnson, 24, Colorado Avalanche: 2011-12 stats: 4 goals and 22 assists for 26 points in 73 games -> four-year contract with an average value of $3.75 million

Erik Karlsson, 22, Ottawa Senators: 2011-12 stats: 19 goals and 59 assists for 78 points in 81 games -> seven-year contract with an average value of $6.5 million

Victor Hedman, 22, Tampa Bay Lightning: 2011-12 stats: 5 goals and 18 assists for 23 points in 61 games -> five-year contract with an average value of $4 million

John Carlson, 22, Washington Capitals: 2011-12 stats: 9 goals and 23 assists for 32 points in 82 games -> six-year contract with an average value of $3.96 million

SOURCE: CAP GEEK

The problem with trading Subban is that you have to make sure you receive enough talent to justify not giving him a long-term pact, such as a young power forward like Bobby Ryan or a good young offensive defenseman like Jamie McBain. Bergevin will have to deal with the media and fans’ scrutiny in the upcoming weeks as he ponders what to do with his prized defenseman. This will definitely be the biggest decision of his short tenure as the team’s general manager, a decision that will be much more difficult than buying out the contract of under-performing center Scott Gomez.

The other problem Bergevin is facing is that another GM might decide to send a lucrative offer sheet to Subban, an offer that Subban would likely accept. As a result, Bergevin would be faced with an even tougher decision and decide to match the offer sheet or simply let Subban go and accept the draft picks as a compensation.

Bergevin also has to consider his cap landscape a few years down the road, when he will have to renegotiate with impending restricted free agents Alex Galchenyuk, Brendan Gallagher, Jarred Tinordi, Nathan Beaulieu, and Louis Leblanc, among others.

Getting rid of Gomez’s contract off the salary cap and the fact that the team currently carries seven healthy defensemen on a one-way deal (Kaberle, Markov, Diaz, Bouillon, Emelin, Gorges and Weber) mean the organization can be patient and wait for Subban’s agent, Don Meehan, to make the first move and accept a shorter term or a less expensive contract.

Personally, I believe the Canadiens must re-sign Subban long term despite his off-ice antics and his propensity to turn the puck over, as this kind of generational talent does not come often. Pundits will say Subban’s peculiar personality and egocentric persona don’t fit with the current roster and the vision of this centennial organisation, but let’s be honest, who will compensate Subban’s absence on the blue line? Nathan Beaulieu is still a project, Andrei Markov is one bad movement away from a career-ending injury and Raphael Diaz only has one season under his belt.

Several NHL teams are looking for help on defense, most notably the Detroit Red Wings, the New York Islanders, the San Jose Sharks, the Ottawa Senators, the Edmonton Oilers, the Carolina Hurricanes, the Dallas Stars and the Philadelphia Flyers.

The return for Subban would most likely be a power forward, a young and talented defenseman and a draft pick.

Hockey fans, what is your team’s best offer for the “Subbanator”?

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What Is P.K. Subban Really Worth?

By Coach K and Francois Dumais

Since the announcement of an agreement in principle between the NHL and the Players’ Association, Habs’ fans have had one thing on their minds:

How long before the Canadiens sign RFA defenseman P.K. Subban?

With the recent signing by the New York Rangers of Michael Del Zotto, who is represented by the same agent as Subban, Don Meehan, the comparables game has once again come front and centre. Del Zotto signed a two-year, $5.1 Million contract on January 13^th, 2013.

There are many in the media who claim that Subban is using L.A. Kings’ defensive stalwart Drew Doughty, and his eight-year, $56 Million contract as a viable comparable. 

That leaves a huge gap between those comparables alone ($4,450,000 per season). However, numbers can’t define the importance of P.K. Subban alone.

With the announcement by Habs’ GM Marc Bergavin that he has no intention of trading P.K. Subban, it concretizes his importance in the future plans of the Canadiens. After all, Subban was on the ice an average of 39.7% of the time last season.

The Stats Don’t Lie

If you want to talk about comparables, you need only look at four of the NHL’s youngest defensemen. For the purposes of this article, we added John Carlson of the Washington Capitals to the mix, along with Del Zotto, Doughty and Subban.

Strictly from an offensive perspective, Subban finished behind our other examples in goals with seven, although he had 29 assists, giving him second behind Del Zotto. If he and his agent want to use Drew Doughty as a primary comparable, it doesn’t bode well for P.K. Over the past three seasons, he’s averaged 20 points less than the Kings’ D-man. That said, his points-per-game is mere 0.03 behind Doughty, due to Subban’s limited use in his first NHL season.

In overall ice-time, Subban (24:17 per game) is a mere 36 seconds on average behind Doughty (24:53 per game). Subban is second among our four defensemen in terms of TOI on the power play and penalty killing. Michael Del Zotto (PP) and John Carlson (PK) lead those respective categories.

Last 20 Games May Be Subban’s Best Case

Using a smaller sample size from last season, that being the last 20 games of their respective seasons, Subban takes the lead over our four other defensemen in goals, assists and points (4-9-13). Doughty and Del Zotto were behind him with three goals, six assists and nine points respectively.

While Del Zotto led our group on the power play with an average of 4:35 TOI (Time On Ice) per game, P.K. was right behind him in second with 3:39 TOI per game. On the penalty kill, while Doughty had a TOI per game of 2:00, Subban had a whopping 3:39 TOI per game. Overall, Subban led everyone in overall TOI per game with an average of almost 26 minutes.

Top 10 Among His Peers

If you look at Subban’s overall ranking among his NHL peers, he is ranked sixth from the top 50 defensemen in the league from an offensive perspective, with an overall score of 723. Only Zdeno Chara (BOS), Shea Weber (NSH), Kevin Shattenkirk (STL), Dan Boyle (SJS) and Alex Pietrangelo (STL) are ranked ahead of him. Doughty ranked 26^th, while Del Zotto ranked 14^th.

So What Does He Deserve To Be Paid?

If you look at our comparibles, there are solid arguments from both sides of the coin. The Rangers have a much stronger supporting cast on defense for Del Zotto than the Canadiens have for Subban. P.K.’s importance is just as high to the Habs as that of Doughty to the Kings.

If Subban and Don Meehan want to be fair to everyone, including themselves, then an average salary of $4.5 Million is a reasonable number, in our opinion, to ask for. As far as length of term is concerned, with the wealth of defensive prospects in the Canadiens’ organization, signing Subban for more than three years would be a colossal mistake.

Ultimately, it’s a question of organizational importance…for Subban. Does he want to be part of the refit of the league’s most storied franchise, or does he want to think of himself first? Compare what you will, only time will really tell.

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How Much Money Is PK Subban Worth?

As soon as the new CBA is ratified by both the NHL owners and the players, teams will finally be allowed to start making roster moves such as signing free agents and calling up players from their farm teams. In the case of a few teams, that also means signing their restricted free agents as soon as possible and bringing them into the team’s training camp.

The most notable RFAs still unsigned being forwards Jamie Benn (Dallas Stars) and Ryan O’Reilly (Colorado Avalanche), as well as rearguards Michael Del Zotto (New York Rangers), Dmitry Kulikov (Florida Panthers) and PK Subban (Montreal Canadiens).

PK Subban is still a restricted free agent (Icon SMI)

But now, let’s concentrate on the talented, but controversial Canadiens defenseman who is a now cornerstone of the team’s defensive corps. The 23 year-old defenseman did not go oversee during the lockout, preferring to make several TV appearances for CTV Montreal as a weatherman and Sportsnet as a hockey analyst between periods.

While the popular Subban may have a future on television, his current career is as an NHL defenseman and he must now concentrate on accepting the right contract from Habs’ general manager Marc Bergevin. The native of Toronto, Ontario, is coming off his entry-level contract and prior to the NHL lockout, it was rumored that Bergevin had offered him a three-year deal worth $11 million ($3.66 million/year), which Subban and his agent Don Meehan politely declined.

But how much money per year is Subban really worth?

Right now, the Canadiens payroll for 2013-14 is a tad over $60.16 million linked to 16 players and Subban’s new contract could push Montreal over the $64.3 million cap for next season. The team’s precarious financial position for next year likely means that Bergevin cannot afford to give Subban a contract similar to the eight-year deal worth $56 million ($7 million/year) that Los Angeles defenseman Drew Doughty signed prior to last season, which is reportedly the kind of contract that the charismatic rearguard was looking for this summer.

On one hand, while Subban is a very talented puck-carrying defenseman, he has only played two full seasons in the NHL and has yet to establish himself as a true #1 defenseman on and off the ice. On the other hand, Doughty had seasons of 59 and 40 points prior to signing his lucrative long-term pact. While under the new CBA teams can re-sign their own players to a maximum of eight years, do you really think that Bergevin wants to be tied up long term to a player who had a few scuffles with his own teammates Hal Gill and David Desharnais during practice last season? Subban doesn’t have unanimous backing in the Habs’ dressing room as he has a tendency to show off and be overly talkative, both on an off the ice.

Yesterday, team captain Brian Gionta even said that he had not speak with Subban for the past six months and that the best way to find PK recently is by turning on your television. As you can see, Subban’s strong presence in the media seems to bother some veterans, and until he can prove them wrong and show the organization and the fans that he has become more mature, disciplined and hard-working, the Bleu Blanc Rouge should err on the cautious side and offer him a short term contract.

PK likes to be in the spotlight (photo: Rob Elbaz – The Hockey Writers)

Since we know that any player whose contract has expired can declare himself an unrestricted free agent if he is at least 27 years of age or has at least seven years of service as an NHL player, the Canadiens would be best to offer Subban a three-year contract or less so that Subban is not older than 26 years old when the contract ends.

This way, the Canadiens would be able to assess Subban’s true value and contribution to the team and ensure that he doesn’t become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the pact. Now suppose Subban and Meehan agree to a three-year pact with Montreal: How much per year is Subban really worth?

Let’s have a look at some young defensemen with comparable offensive numbers who recently signed long-term deals with their respective teams:

Cam Fowler, 21, Anaheim Ducks: 2011-12 stats: 5 goals and 24 assists for 29 points in 82 games -> five-year contract with an average value of $4 million

Tyler Myers, 22, Buffalo Sabres: 2011-12 stats: 8 goals and 15 assists for 23 points in 55 games -> seven-year contract with an average value of $5.5 million

Erik Johnson, 24, Colorado Avalanche: 2011-12 stats: 4 goals and 22 assists for 26 points in 73 games -> four-year contract with an average value of $3.75 million

Erik Karlsson, 22, Ottawa Senators: 2011-12 stats: 19 goals and 59 assists for 78 points in 81 games -> seven-year contract with an average value of $6.5 million

Victor Hedman, 22, Tampa Bay Lightning: 2011-12 stats: 5 goals and 18 assists for 23 points in 61 games -> five-year contract with an average value of $4 million

John Carlson, 22, Washington Capitals: 2011-12 stats: 9 goals and 23 assists for 32 points in 82 games -> six-year contract with an average value of $3.96 million

SOURCE: CAP GEEK

As we can see, most of these players received long-term deals at an average value of approximately $4 million per year except for Erik Karlsson who earned a contract similar to Doughty’s contract, but he won the Norris Trophy following his career season in 2011-12, so we can undoubtedly say he deserved this contract.

Following the extensive analysis above, I am willing to predict that Marc Bergevin will offer a three-year deal worth $13.5 million (or $4.5 million/year) to PK Subban, or an increase of  $2.5 million over his previous offer. With that in mind, Subban would be foolish to refuse this offer and hold out during the team’s training camp as a refusal would tarnish his reputation towards fans and harm the Canadiens’ chances at making the playoffs this season.

How much do you think Subban will earn per year? What will be the term of the deal? 

**************

A long-time Joe Sakic fan, Fred, 34, is a freelance sports writer and translator. Fred earned a Bachelor of Translation in 2002 at Laval University in Quebec City. He also writes on the Montreal Canadiens for thehockeywriters.com and he is an associate editor and a baseball columnist on Dobberbaseball.com. He is also fluent in English, French and Spanish.

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Georges Laraque to play for AIK Stockholm in Sweden?

BREAKING NEWS:
UPDATE: Jan 28, 2010 - 12:38 pm
A bizarre twist in the Laraque to AIK story as a Swedish source, who admits that they are not an expert of NHL-contracts, says that it is Laraque who is not waiving his no trade clause because of concern for the following year. The source was not exactly clear on the details of Laraque's concerns but explained that since he is not waiving his NMC the NHL will not allow him to play overseas.

Seems pretty straight forward but strange. I imagine that this is about financial security for next year but who knows. I'll post more as I hear it.

UPDATE: Jan 28, 2010 - 10:30 pm

Image via Wikipedia

Swedish sources indicate that the NHL head office is holding up the Laraque to AIK transfer. AIK sports director, Anders Gozzi, was hoping to make an announcement last night.

So far AIK and the Montreal Canadiens have agreed to the transfer but NHL offices are not giving the ok to nullify Laraque's contract and let him go to Europe. According to an article in AftonBladet, Gozzi is saying that it is a complicated situation and they still hope to work out a deal.

AftonBladet story:
http://www.aftonbladet.se/sportbladet/hockeybladet/internationellt/nhl/article6503667.ab

UPDATE: Jan 27, 2010 - 4:27 pm
Reached for comment by telephone, Canadiens VP Communications and Community Relations, explained that he does not have any further information. When told that AIK has reportedly agreed to a deal with Laraque and is just waiting for approval from the Habs, Mr. Beauchamps again indicated that he has no further information on the subject.

UPDATE: Jan 27, 2010 - 3:27 pm
A message left for Candiens Director of Media Relations, Dominik Saillant, was not immediately returned.

Swedish source explains that AIK brass are currently in meetings to determine whether they will join the KHL or not. According to the scource, the team will provide an update on Laraque situation once their meeting is over.

UPDATE: Jan 27, 2010 - 10:00 am
Swedish sources explain that the offer for Laraque will likey be finalized today. There could be an announcement as early as this afternoon. The only thing holding up the signing/transfer is that the Habs are working out details involving insurance.

AIK captain and former Edmonton Oiler, Dick Tarnstrom, says that Laraque should be lauded for saying he would play for free.

Here is the AftonBladet article which you can translate, to get the gist, using Bing Translator.
http://www.aftonbladet.se/sportbladet/hockeybladet/sverige/allsvenskan/article6494421.ab

Swedish Article Explaining how deal could be announced today:
http://webbsporten.se/laraque-forstarker-aik/

UPDATE: Jan 26, 2010 - 3:30 pm
RDS confirms that Laraque is interested in AIK
http://www.rds.ca/canadien/chroniques/291462.html

Habs Inside/Out explains further:
http://www.habsinsideout.com/main/28201

UPDATE: Jan 26, 2010 - 2:00 pm
During email correspondance with a Swedish source they said that they have been in touch with Laraque during the weekend and he has confirmed that he is interested in coming back to Stockholm. They also confirmed that he is willing to play for free.

The source continued that AIK and sports director Anders Gozzi have confirmed that they are in contact with Laraque, and are trying to work out an agreement this week.

UPDATE: Jan 26, 2010 - 12:12 pm
Here is an interview of Laraque talking about how much he loves AIK Stockholm and would love to play there again before he retires:


Here is a link to a letter that BGL wrote to the fans of AIK:
http://www.svenskafans.com/hockeyzon/aik/artikel.asp?id=90545

UPDATE: Tuesday, Jan 26, 2010 - 11:40 am
Reached by telephone for comment, Canadiens Director of Media Relations, Dominik Saillant said that he had no comment at this time. He also explained that the first he heard about this story was this morning and that Laraque needs the Habs permission to play for any team.

UDPATE: Tuesday, Jan 26, 2010 - 10:40 am
Habs GM Bob Gainey, Laraque and AIK will sit down for a meeting today and the transfer may be completed as early as this afternoon.

Laraque to Play in Sweden?
As first reported by HabsAddict.com, a Swedish article says that Georges Laraque wants to play for AIK Stockholm. This is the team he played for during the lockout. The NHL rules are unclear as to player transfers with Sweden when still under contract to an NHL team so lawyers from both sides are discussing. Here is the article (in Swedish). Use Bing Translator to get the gist of the article:

http://www.aftonbladet.se/sportbladet/hockeybladet/sverige/allsvenskan/article6482575.ab

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